America has seen this movie before: President Trump, who imposed hard invoices on Monday on imported steel and aluminum, did so once, in 2018. Thus, domestic industries have a great idea of ​​how the history.
Truck, devices and equipment manufacturers are struggling to find American sources of metal inputs, keeping steel and aluminum producers more busy than before. Companies that need specific alloys that do not become domestic are forced to pay more. Prices are rising, making the final products more expensive.
But there may be turns on the way along the way. Mr Trump will reduce agreements with certain countries, allowing large missions without new tasks? Will it create a process to give companies a postponement if they can show difficulties? (On Monday, a White House official said there would be no exceptions.)
All of this could affect the outcome, so steel users go carefully before metal invoices come into force on 12 March. Angela Holt, who manages a machining company and head of the Board of Directors of the Indiana Manufacturers Union, says the possible impact on businesses are “complex”.
“It could not only affect the cost but availability, depending on their condition,” Mrs Holt said. “It’s very varied, even among industries – I think it will depend on an individual base where they supply their materials, how competition looks.”
Lessons from the last time
Although the US steel and aluminum industries are much weaker than they were at their peak in the 1970s, US companies only import about 26 % of the steel they use, according to the International Trade Administration and the number is reduced .
At the same time, end -users looking for alternatives to foreign suppliers may have options. US iron and steel producers operate only about 70 %. Trump’s first administration aims to reach 80 % and did so soon. However, undervalued Chinese exports have burdened domestic producers in recent years, forcing larger, less effective mills to close and leave others with less orders than they can handle.
Also, primary metal invoices do not appear to be fully transferred to consumers. According to a 2020 study by economists at the University of Columbia, the University of Princeton and the Bank of the Federal Bank of New York, foreign exporters absorbed about half of the 2018 steel prices, reducing their prices to maintain access in the US market.
Still, this does not mean that prices will not rise. In 2023, the US Committee on International Trade found that these invoices raised steel and aluminum prices on average by 2.4 % and 1.6 %. Perhaps, therefore, the stocks of US metal processors, such as Nucor, Dynamics Steel and Cleveland-Cliffs, increased on Monday, pending the announcement of Mr Trump’s duties.
“I think the long journey is that there were many later industries that were influenced,” said Alex Durante, a senior economist at the tax institution he has written on the financial impact of invoices. “The main results compensate for any positive effect on steel and aluminum producers, founders and refineries.”
There are also reasons to believe that the impact can be worse for metal users this time.
The American construction is in a thin condition, with a high interest rate and a powerful dollar that makes exports less competitive. Unemployment remains low and as Trump’s administration breaks migration, work can become more expensive. Steel and aluminum prices have increased during the Covid-19 pandemic and have not yet fallen to previous levels.
That is why additional invoices could have a greater impact-especially if they end up stacked at the top of the invoices in Canadian imports, which Mr Trump said it could come into force on 1 March.
“It contributes to many things that are already stressing out on a tight macroeconomic situation,” said Chad Bown, a senior associate at the Peterson Institute for the international economy.
Containers, houses, cars
For an idea for industries could be more influenced by new invoices, it is useful to consider how important steel and aluminum is in their production.
As part of its report on the impact of the 2018 Trump invoices, the International Trade Committee ranked industries with their dependence on the two metals. One type of business that uses the largest steel is to seal metal with motor vehicles, at 58 %, with other automatic construction elements using enough.
While much of the steel used by car manufacturers are produced in the United States, companies and suppliers also depend on specialized alloys available only on producers abroad. Almost all automakers will be affected, including Tesla, which in 2023 called for invoices. The company told officials that it needed steel only available from abroad, according to information about Cybertruck, which has a stainless steel body. (Tesla’s shares price decreased by 3 % on Monday.)
Many automakers are already struggling to remain profitable in the face of increased competition from Chinese automakers and the cost of developing electric models. Invoices for goods from Mexico and Canada could harm the creditworthiness of some manufacturers – especially Nissan and Stelandis – said Fitch’s ratings, which rating the company’s finances.
Then for steel dependence: buildings. Commercial constructions and large apartment buildings require a lot of reinforcement – a concrete steel reinforcement – which could add a lot to the developers’ bill. Carl Harris, president of the National Builders’ Union at home, noted on Monday that Mr Trump said he wanted to make the housing more accessible.
“Its transition to impose 25 % of invoices on all steel and aluminum products is imported into the US, facing this target, increasing building costs, preventing new growth and frustrating efforts to rebuild after natural disasters” Mr Harris said, Mr Harris said in a statement. “Eventually, consumers will pay for these invoices in the form of higher housing prices.”
An area that does not use steel, but very aluminum is brewing and bottling of soft drinks. In 2018, when aluminum invoices were set at 10 %, they added half a billion dollars to production costs, according to the American Beverage Association.
Airplanes and bridges?
The impact on other industries is unclear.
Higher aluminum values ​​could affect Boeing, for example. The company is already behind the timetable for JET deliveries after a quality crisis and an extensive strike by workers last year. In a recent mobile deposit, he said that invoices, especially for aluminum and titanium, could mean that the company would be “unable to deliver one or more of our products in time or budget.
But when Mr Trump imposed similar restrictions on aluminum and steel in 2018, Boeing and its leading supplier, Spirit Aerosystems, said the results were limited.
Boeing’s chief executive, Dennis Muilenburg, told an investor conference that the company had put forward about 90 % of its aluminum in the United States, adding that Boeing “was not significantly exposed”. The company and its suppliers also use joint ventures and long -term contracts to safely source and stabilize raw material prices.
Another big user of the metal is the federal government, through the construction and repair of railways, bridges, submarines and air transporters. Most of them are already obliged to use steel and aluminum produced by the domestic market, but invoices can also push these prices.
Invoices could also supply the energy price, both on the basis of fossil fuels and renewables. Drilling equipment and oil and gas pipes are made of steel and aluminum, as well as shelves for solar arrays and wind turbines. And building new transport lines, which are essential for both types of energy, will become more expensive.
Energy companies could bypass invoices by buying these finished products from abroad. But this would undermine the goal of Biden’s subsidies for the development of renewable energy sources that used components and equipment produced by the domestic market, which had supplied a small explosion in the construction of US factories.
Jack ewing; Niraj chokshi and Rebecca Elliott They contributed reports. Susan C. Beachy He contributed research.
