During the first term of President Trump, Ukraine was worried that Mr Trump could recognize Russian control in Crimea, the Moscow Ukrainian Peninsula that was violently seized in early 2014.
As a candidate, Mr Trump said he would “take a look” at the issue, although the Obama government and the Western allies of America had rejected the annexation of strategic territory by Russia. Mr Trump even spoke that “the people of Crimea, than what I have heard, would prefer to be with Russia”.
But Mr Trump never followed and even doubled against Moscow. In July 2018, Foreign Minister Mike Pompeo issued a formal “Crimea Declaration” that commits that the non -recognition policy will remain “until the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity”.
Now, in his attempt to negotiate the war between Russia and Ukraine, Mr Trump is willing to get away from this statement – and over a decade of American policy.
A new proposal for peace offered in London in London on Wednesday would include US recognition that Crimea is part of Russia, US and European officials.
Daniel Fried, a former diplomat with extensive experience with Ukraine and Russia, described it as the worst element of the Trump proposal, which is widely believed to strongly favor Moscow’s position in various ways.
It is one thing to stop the battles along today’s battle lines without asking Russia to withdraw from the huge hit of Eastern Ukraine now occupied, Mr Fried said. The official recognition of Russia’s claim in Crimea would be much worse, he said.
“It is perfectly reasonable to accept the reality that for an indefinite period, parts of Ukraine will be under illegal Russian occupation,” Mr Fried. “It is something else to formally recognize a change of borders by violence.”
This view reacted Mr Pompeo’s statement, which confirmed “an international authority shared by democratic states: that no country can change the borders of another by violence”.
It is not clear how enthusiastic Mr Trump was ever for such a discussion by Mr Pompeo, who was very ridiculous to Russia than the president he served. But this view was widely shared in Washington, among other things by Mr Pompeo’s final successor Marco Rubio.
As a senator, Mr Rubio signed a measure in October 2022, banning the United States from recognizing Russian claims on any part of Ukraine’s land, warning that this would “endanger the establishment of a dangerous precedent for other authorities. Mr Rubio and others are afraid that China may be more likely to try to take over Taiwan if he sees the West admit control of Ukraine in Russia.
The idea of ​​recognizing Crimea as Russia is a total non -starter for Ukraine and its defenders. On Wednesday, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky ruled out the opportunity, saying he would violate his country’s constitution: “There is nothing to talk about.
But Mr Trump later appeared to be a distinction between Crimea’s recognition as Russia by Ukraine, where public opinion would make this step, but also impossible by the United States. “No one is asking Zelenskyy to recognize Crimea as a Russian territory,” Mr Trump wrote.
Some analysts believe that Mr Zelensky and European officials could be able to tolerate such a US position and very disagree if they are not pressured to support it.
For some, Mr Trump’s position – which remains a part of a proposal that could change – can simply recognize events on the spot.
Eleven years ago, Russian forces responded to a pre-west revolution in Kiev, taking over Crimea and organizing a referendum there, he was widely denounced as illegal, which approved the integration.
Since then, Moscow has only established its control. She has built her military presence, forced residents as opposed to her sovereignty and even built a large bridge connecting Crimea with mainland Russia.
Analysts say the recovery of the peninsula would be extremely difficult for Ukraine, especially as it was unable to launch Russia from its east territories after more than two years of all the games.
Crimea also has a very high value for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. Its port city of Sevastopol, where the Russian Black Sea fleet is based, is an important strategic asset and was the site of the epic battles during World War II and the Crimean war in the mid -19th century.
And while Mr Putin suggested that all Ukraine belongs to Russia, he may feel particularly indignant by Crimea, which was part of the Russian empire for hundreds of years until 1954.
Then Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev transferred his control to KIEB as a gift for the 300th anniversary of Russia’s unification with Ukraine. It was a largely symbolic gesture at a time when Russia and Ukraine were fellow democracies in the Soviet Union, which collapsed in 1991.
Samuel Charap, a Rand Corporation analyst and expert, said Trump has a history of recognition in long -term territorial claims. In 2019, he recognized his close ally the long -term Syrian Golan Golan profession of Syria. And in 2020, Mr Trump supported Morocco’s 45 -year claim to rule Western Sahara in return for Israel’s diplomatic recognition by Morocco.
But Mr Charap questioned the utility of making such a concession to Russia in the case of Crimea.
He referred to the previous Welles Declaration in July 1940, in which Foreign Minister Sumner Welles said the United States would never recognize the possession of Soviet Russia that summer of the Baltic States – Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. (Mr. Pompeo mentioned this statement to Crimea’s 2018 statement.)
“This did not prevent Détente, or even a negotiating end to the Cold War,” Mr Charap said.
Mr Fried agreed, adding that many in the United States and Europe initially “stumbled upon the doctrine of Welles” as “funny”. But he noted that the Baltic were finally free again, after the Soviet Union collapsed.
“Oh, it turned out to be prophetic,” he added.
