On Thursday morning, President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico plans to speak with President Trump in an effort to prevent the 25 % invoices that Mr Trump imposed this week on his country’s exports, which will destroy his economy.
But already, Mexico supported for an impact.
Invoices, according to banks and business leaders, are likely to cause US companies that make products in Mexico to leave the country, according to Mr Trump’s stated goal of pushing manufacturers to move to the United States. This could lead to the loss of tens of thousands of Mexican jobs and the contraction of the gross domestic product over 2 %.
By Wednesday, Mrs Sheinbaum seemed to have recovered from the shock that Mr Trump was imposing invoices, which Mexican officials, just a few days earlier, had been sure that they could negotiate with Trump. He had shifted into a state of crisis, calling for a “definitive moment” for the country and drawing on a comparison with the devastating Covid-19 pandemic.
Yes, Mrs Sheinbaum recognized, the pain will come: about 80 % of Mexico exports go to the United States. But Mexico had resisted worse. The peso sank on Tuesday, the day the invoices came into force, but not as much as it had during the pandemic, he said.
He called patience, suggesting that things could still change and hit a provocative tone, saying that Mexico was not going to get the invoices they were.
“The Mexicans are brave and durable – Mexico people are strong and the economy is doing well,” he said, adding that “there will be no submission.” If necessary, he said, Mexico will build his trade relations with “Canada and other countries” to offset the loss of US businesses.
Mrs Sheinbaum assured the public that there will be a response from her government this weekend, which she described as a subject of “dignity”.
“We have our plan, which we will announce on Sunday,” he said.
In the meantime, many Mexican companies say they are taking their slogans from their president and sit tightly, despite the seriousness of what could be in the store.
“At this point, there are no immediate reactions from exporters,” said Miguel Muñoz, director of Mexico in Geodis, a global Logistics company, who said he had spoken to both the customers and the Mexican Chamber of Commerce. “They are waiting to see what the government is going to do.”
He said the exporters have not yet made big moves, including his customers in the retail industry. They were further encouraged by Wednesday’s announcement that Trump’s administration would relieve automakers from invoices for a month and the proposal of US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick earlier this week that Mr Trump’s invoices for Mexico and Canada could still be transferred.
“It’s the job as usual, honestly – believing it is going to be delayed a month, what does it say it is not going to be delayed six months or more?” He said. “At least for this week, exporters will act as if it were ordinary job, whatever is needed. After next week, they will understand what to do.”
Ms Sheinbaum’s comments on Wednesday, however, suggested that he was preparing for the worst. Whatever its government’s plan, a trade war is likely to harm Mexico’s economy much more than that of the United States.
And while some have chosen calm and attention, others have overcome. Government officials and business leaders are working together to find ways to adapt and use alternative markets.
“Of course, this was surprised and it wasn’t what we hoped, but the word -key here is the adaptation,” said Antonio Hernández, director of economic development in Torreón, about 300 miles south of Laredo in Texas. “We have to go beyond tragedy and in action.”
This meant “knocking on the doors” in the European Union with virtual meetings and began planning trips to countries such as Hungary and Japan to discuss trade partnerships, Mr Hernández said. But there are major obstacles to exporting two of the world’s largest markets, the European Union and China, say experts, including the difficulty of transporting agricultural goods with short shelves and European food imports.
Business leaders are also looking closer home, Mr Hernández said, focusing on the domestic Mexican market as well as on other markets in America.
Mrs Sheinbaum said on Wednesday that she had already spoken to President Gabriel Boric of Chile and that her government was open to forging other trade partnerships.
Although local officials and business leaders have already begun to fight for ways to deal with the new commercial landscape, Mr Hernandez said that until they know more about what Mr Trump and Mrs Sheinbaum will do not know “what will be the rules of the game”.
Despite its temporary depreciation, the carmaker warned on Wednesday that Mr Trump’s invoices threatened to destabilize the highly integrated supply chains between Mexico, the United States and Canada.
“Invoices will have a serious impact on the area that create inflation, job loss and lower growth for the three countries,” the Mexican cars and the national car spare parts industry said in a joint statement with other associations.
Already this week, the flow of goods heading north to the United States has slowed significantly and US companies have talked about lifting their activities by Mexico.
A sharp, constant decline in the peso against the dollar could be devastating. In the mid -1990s, the depreciation of the peso led to a large recession that prompted millions of Mexicans to migrate to the United States.
Ms Sheinbaum’s approval ratings have recently increased over 80 %, to a large extent because of what many see as a ready and steady approach to negotiating with Mr Trump, as well as its actions in other high priorities, such as the collapse of the drug trafficking.
The government has also called on a rally on Sunday in the city of Mexico, a sign that the country’s leadership is focusing on national solidarity as well as on the construction of an economic reaction.
“It is important to explain that this decision is unilaterally taken by the US government,” Ms Sheinbaum said on the rally.
Mr Muñoz, director of Geodis Mexico, said it was too early to know the impact that the invoices in Mexico would have. Some businesses respond, but many others, he said, followed a waiting approach to see now.
“What the Chambers of Commerce applaud is the way the president handled this,” he said. “They still don’t move a finger.”
“They are waiting. They stand to see what the Mexican government’s strategy will be in it. They are waiting for the message of President Sheinbaum.”
