Trump’s offensive pricing policy has caused havoc throughout the world economy, including travel industry. Until Wednesday’s 90 days suspended Wednesday, the US dollar showed signs of weakening, hotels faced higher operating expenses, and travelers were nervous to booking.
Even before mutual invoices imposed, the last indicator of the conference on consumer confidence had fallen to the lowest level in 12 years, possibly leading a chill to travel demand. And, in a survey of its members in early April, the US Traveling Company said almost 54 % reported a decrease in demand for consumer concerns due to economic concerns.
For the time being, a 10 percent line bar against most countries has been in place, with China facing a 125 percent invoice in its goods. While it is not clear what will happen after the 90 -day cessation, here is a look at how invoices, or just their threat, can affect the travel industry.
The dollar holds, for now
At the beginning of the year, the dollar was close to the euro. It is now about $ 1.10 in the euro, which means a hotel room that costs 100 euros will be about $ 110.
“Normally, one would expect that the imposition of US invoices will be mildly positive for the US dollar,” said Michael Melvin, executive director of the Master of Quantitative Finance program at the University of California, San Diego. “We saw such results in the first round of the announced invoices in Mexico and Canada, which was quickly reversed when the president announced a reversal of these invoices,” he said.
However, invoices from other countries could neutralize the impact on the dollar, according to a budget laboratory at Yale University, a non -profit policy research center.
Although the dollar has been slightly reduced against other coins, including the British pound and Japanese yen, exchange rates are still relatively favorable to Americans abroad, especially in Canada and Mexico.
Slowing air traffic
For airlines, invoices may increase the cost of construction of airplanes, but operators have more direct concerns.
“The problem now is economic uncertainty and the risk of recession,” said Brian Sumers, who writes the aviation newsletter, the airline observer, noting that airlines have seen a slower demand for President Trump’s inauguration. “When people are worried about the future, they tend to spend less money. They don’t know how to keep their investments or if they will have a job in six months and thus keep travel planning and airline tickets.”
In March, Bank of America analysts found that domestic trips remained slow in 2025, which were attributed to the decline in the confidence of consumer, bad weather and late Easter.
The way he will play this on airline tickets remains for discussion, as the capacity of airlines to maintain prices. This week, Delta Air Lines said it would reduce the planned increase in capacity in the second half of the year.
“In general, I expect prices to fall and see more empty positions,” Mr Sumers said.
As lower income households reduce discreet costs, low -cost airlines are more vulnerable, said Jonathan Kletzel, head of transport and logistics at PWC Business PwC. “Reduced carriers will feel this much more,” he said.
Hotel obstacles
As buyers of all, from leaves and furniture in electronics and wine, hotels are threatened at a higher operating cost, as invoices increase the price of imports.
“While hosting businesses can absorb some of these additional costs in the short term, it is likely that at least some of the increased costs will eventually be transferred to customers,” said Becky Liu-Lastres, an Associate Professor at the Department of Tourism, Event and Athletic Administration.
In addition, the industry, based on working immigrants and visa, is facing a possible lack of work associated with the strict attitude of the administration for immigration, said David Sherwyn, a professor of hospitality, human resources and law at the Nolan School of Hotel School at the University of Cornell.
In the past, hotels are confused lower rates to attract visitors, but if they have limited staff to manage a complete home, they may receive lower possession to keep rates up.
Jan Freitag, the National Manager of Hosting Analysis at Costar Group, a commercial real estate analyst company, said hotel renovations and the new construction were likely to slow as the costs rise.
Domestic travel benefits
In previous economic downturn, Americans tend to travel closer home and book closer to departure, two trends that experts say may return.
In a survey of 1,000 adults conducted from April 3 to April 5, MMgy Global’s marketing and communication agency found that 83 % of respondents were still intended to travel – below 4 % of similar survey in February – but most were intended to change their plans.
A third was planning to travel closer to the house. 29 % said they would exchange an international destination for domestic. and 24 % will choose a cheaper mode of transport.
“At the very high end, I will not be surprised if they continue to travel,” said Freitag of Costar, “but the Middle Americans with 401 (k) S Shaken can say:” Let me stay close to home. “
Cruise in unstable water
Travel warnings from foreign governments associated with recent reservations at the US border and boycott travels by Canadians, who have been injured by invoices and calls to make their country in the 51st state, threaten inbound international tourism, including the US.
“This will also have an impact on the cruise industry,” said Vinod Agarwal, a professor of Economics at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, VA. “Canadians who want to travel to the Caribbean may not want to pass through the US anymore.”
Cruises are more protected than duties than other travel industries because they often buy supplies such as food in foreign ports, freeing them from the import fees, said Gordon Ho, a professor at the Administration and Organization at the University of Southern California Marshall School Cruises.
Cruise bookings also tend to be months or years in advance. It remains to see how many passengers will cancel if the economic conditions worsen.
“For those who are looking for, there will be opportunities for great values ​​in the months that are next throughout the travel industry, as it is trying to offset lost international tourism,” Mr Ho said.
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