The Biden administration’s new regulation to limit emissions from cars and light trucks will transform the American auto market, charting a path away from the internal combustion engine and toward a future of electric and hybrid cars.
Here’s what you need to know about the meter.
It’s a big deal in the fight against climate change
In terms of reducing global-warming emissions, this regulation does more than any other climate rule issued by the federal government, and more than any measure planned for the remainder of Mr. Biden’s first term.
This is partly because transportation is the largest source of greenhouse gases produced by the United States. It is also because the rule is objectively ambitious. The rule is projected to remove more than seven billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere over the next 30 years, more than all the greenhouse gases produced by the entire United States economy in one year. And, because the United States is a huge auto market, analysts predict that companies that build cleaner cars in the United States will start selling them on the global market as other governments adopt or move toward similar standards.
The rule is not to ban gasoline vehicles
The rule does not mandate sales of electric vehicles, and consumers can still buy and drive gas-powered cars. Instead, it requires car manufacturers to strictly adhere to new average emissions limits across their product lines. It is up to the manufacturers to decide how to meet these limits.
Under the Clean Air Act, the Environmental Protection Agency can limit the pollution created by the total number of cars each year. EPA officials said that as long as automakers comply with emissions rules, they can sell a mix of gasoline-powered cars, hybrids, EVs or other types of vehicles, such as hydrogen-powered cars.
The rule does not apply to sales of used vehicles.
It penalizes automakers, not consumers, for non-compliance
Starting in the 2027 model year, when the rule takes effect, auto companies will report to the EPA the average emissions associated with all passenger vehicles they sell. Emissions limits will start modestly and increase slowly in the early years of the program, rising sharply after 2030. Companies that do not meet emissions limits will have to pay fines that could reach billions of dollars.
Success depends on consumer behavior
Whether America’s roads are filled with zero-emission vehicles depends on one central question: Will motorists buy them? Early adopters are flocking to EVs, but sales have fallen and automakers worry they need more time to develop the market. That’s one reason the EPA has pushed back stricter emissions requirements for car sales until after 2030, so manufacturers can refine designs and develop more affordable models, as well as build charging infrastructure.
Trump could roll back the rule, but not quickly or easily
Mr Trump has promised to “terminate” the Biden administration’s climate rules “on day 1”. But now that the auto rule is final, it will be more difficult and time-consuming, though not impossible, for a future administration to reinstate it. And even if it were, the Clean Air Act requires that it be replaced with another rule that controls greenhouse pollution from vehicles.
His fate is likely to be decided by the Supreme Court
The rules are expected to face an immediate legal challenge from a coalition of fossil fuel companies and Republican attorneys general, complaints that are likely to go to the Supreme Court. The court’s 6-3 conservative majority has, in recent years, taken steps to limit the EPA’s authority In a 2022 ruling on another major EPA climate rule, the court sharply limited, but did not overturn, the authority of the organization to limit greenhouse pollution from power plants.
