France’s left-wing parties scored a surprise victory in national parliamentary elections on Sunday, denying the nationalist, anti-immigration National Rally party a majority in the lower house of parliament.
But no party appeared on track to secure an outright majority, leaving one of Europe’s largest countries mired in deadlock or political instability.
The results were compiled by The New York Times using data from the Interior Ministry and confirmed earlier predictions that no party or bloc would win a majority.
Here are five excerpts from the election.
Big Surprise No. 1
There were two big surprises as France voted for a new Parliament in early elections, neither of which pundits, pollsters or forecasters had predicted.
The biggest was the triumph of the left: its coalition secured 178 seats and emerged as the leading political bloc in the country. It was the most stunning victory for the French left since François Mitterrand brought it back from its post-war wilderness by winning the presidency as a Socialist in 1981.
President Emmanuel Macron, backed by much of France’s commentary, has spent the past seven years declaring the left – and especially the Socialists – dead, and its more radical fringes, such as France Unbowed, as dangerous rioters. Both won the big Sunday.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the founder of France Unbowed, which is projected to have won around 80 seats — perhaps more than a dozen from the Socialists — said Mr Macron now had a “duty” to appoint a prime minister from the left-wing coalition. the New People’s Front. He boldly said he would refuse “to enter into negotiations with the president.”
In Paris, a large, boisterous crowd gathered to celebrate in the mostly working-class neighborhood around Place de la Bataille-de-Stalingrad on Sunday night.
The two other parties in the New People’s Front are the Greens, who are projected to get around 35 seats, and the Communists, who are projected to get around 10.
Big Surprise #2
The other shock was the third-place finish of the National Rally and its allies, which were expected to win the most seats, if not an outright majority, in the 577-member National Assembly, the most powerful lower house.
The party was already preparing to govern alongside Mr Macron in what is known as cohabitation, when the prime minister and president are on opposite political sides.
However, the National Rally and its allies won 142 seats — more than at any other time in its history, which the party was quick to point out.
“The tide is rising,” Marine Le Pen, the party’s longtime leader and longtime presidential candidate, told reporters on Sunday. “It didn’t go high enough this time, but it’s still going up. And as a result, our victory is, in fact, only delayed.”
But the fundamental mutation predicted before Sunday – that France would become a country of the hard right – did not happen.
And so, for all Ms. Le Pen’s bluster, the National Rally’s election night party was bleak.
The “Republican front” may have worked
It is still too early to tell how voting patterns changed between the two voting rounds and how the New People’s Front achieved its surprise victory. But strategies aimed at preventing the far-right from winning by creating a “republican front” seem to have played a big role.
France’s left-wing parties and Mr Macron’s centrist coalition withdrew more than 200 candidates from three-way races in areas where the far-right had a chance to win a seat. Many voters who loathed the far right voted for whoever remained – even if the candidate was hardly their first choice.
“I would never have voted for France Unbowed under normal circumstances,” said Hélène Leguillon, 43, after voting in Le Mans. “We are forced to make a choice that we would not have made otherwise to block the National Assembly.”
The far-right argued that the tactic was unfair and that it stole the voice of its voters.
“Depriving millions of French people of the opportunity to see their ideas come to power will never be a sustainable path for France,” Jordan Bardela, the president of the National Rally, told supporters in a speech accusing Mr. Macron and the left that they made “dangerous electoral deals”.
Attendance skyrocketed
Official figures for the final round were not immediately available Sunday night, but pollsters predicted it would be around 67 percent, far higher than in 2022, when France last held parliamentary elections. That year, only about 46% of registered voters went to the polls for the runoff.
Sunday’s attendance was the highest since 1997, reflecting strong interest in a match that had much higher stakes than usual.
Parliamentary elections in France are usually held a few weeks after the presidential race and usually favor the party that won the presidency. This makes legislative votes less likely to attract voters, many of whom feel the outcome is predetermined.
This time, however, voters believed their vote could fundamentally change the course of Mr Macron’s presidency — and it seems they were right.
What follows is unclear
With no party holding an absolute majority and the lower house of Parliament set to be filled with factions that loathe each other, it is unclear exactly how France will be governed and by whom.
Mr Macron must appoint a prime minister capable of forming a government that newly installed National Assembly lawmakers will not overthrow with a vote of no confidence.
There is still no clear picture of who that might be, and none of the three main blocs – which also have their own internal disputes – appear ready to work with the others.
“French political culture does not favor compromise,” said Samy Benzina, a professor of public law at the University of Poitiers.
Mr. Mélenchon is disliked by many in the Socialist Party (even by some within his own party, who resent his ascendancy even though he is no longer its official leader). Mr Macron’s Renaissance party contains members who resent the president for calling early elections. and most legislators who are not members of the National Rally abhor it.
Mr Macron himself is a powerful anger factor, as he has repeatedly demonstrated during his seven years as president, although he has already ruled out resigning. The latest survey from polling institute Ifop, conducted after his decision to call early elections but before the vote itself, gave him an approval rating of just 26%.
Where will France’s next prime minister come from? What legislative power does Mr Macron still have? Can he even continue to preside if the Lower House is without a government?
Stay tuned.
Ségolène Le Strandich contributed reporting from Le Mans, France.
