Voters in France went to the polls in droves on Sunday in the final round of early parliamentary elections. The results could force President Emmanuel Macron to govern alongside far-right rivals or lead to chronic political instability weeks before the Paris Summer Olympics.
Turnout at noon local time was the highest in two decades, at about 26.6 percent, the interior ministry said. This was much higher than in the previous parliamentary elections in 2022, when the turnout was at the same time less than 19 percent.
It was also slightly higher than midday in the first round of voting last week, reflecting lingering interest in a vote that will determine the future of Mr Macron’s second term.
Mr Macron called elections for the 577-seat National Assembly, the lower and most prominent house of the French parliament, last month in a risky gamble that appeared to have largely failed after the first round of voting last week.
Most polling stations close at 6pm local time on Sunday, or by 8pm in major cities. Projections of seats across the country from polling institutes, based on preliminary results, are expected shortly after 8 p.m. Official results will be announced throughout the night.
Here’s what to look out for.
Will the far right win enough seats for an absolute majority?
That will be the key question.
In the first round of voting, the nationalist, anti-immigration party National Rally dominated. An alliance of left-wing parties called the New Popular Front came in a strong second place, while Mr Macron’s party and its allies came in third.
Seventy-six seats were won outright – about half from the National Rally. But the rest went to second rounds.
More than 300 districts were three-way races until more than 200 candidates from left-wing parties and Mr Macron’s centrist coalition withdrew to avoid splitting the vote and try to prevent a far-right victory.
This will make it more difficult, though not impossible, for the National Coalition and its allies to achieve an absolute majority.
Most French pollsters expect the party and its allies to win 175 to 240 seats – short of an outright majority of 289 seats. But if the National Rally and its allies secure an absolute majority, they will almost certainly be able to form a government — and Mr Macron, who says he will stay in power, will have to work with them.
How will the leadership of the country work?
A controversial outcome with Mr Macron as president and National Rally leader Jordan Bardela as prime minister is likely, under what France calls a symbiosis.
France’s prime minister and cabinet are accountable to the Lower House and determine the country’s policies. But they are appointed by the president, who has extensive executive powers and is directly elected by the public.
Usually, the president and the prime minister are politically aligned. (Every five years, France holds presidential and parliamentary elections within weeks of each other, making it likely that voters will support the same party twice.) But when the presidency and the National Assembly are at odds, the president has no choice choice than to appoint a prime minister from a rival party — or someone lawmakers won’t overthrow with a vote of no confidence.
The symbiosis has happened before, between mainstream left and conservative leaders, from 1986 to 1988, from 1993 to 1995 and from 1997 to 2002. But a symbiosis between Mr Macron, a pro-European centrist, and of Mr. Bardela, a Eurosceptic nationalist, would be unprecedented.
What if no one gets an absolute majority?
Polls show one likely scenario is a lower house roughly divided into three blocs with conflicting agendas and, in some cases, deep hostility between them – the National Rally, the New People’s Front and a reduced centrist alliance, including the Renaissance party of Mr. Macron.
As it stands, no bloc seems able to find enough partners to form a majority, leaving Mr Macron with limited options.
“French political culture does not favor compromise,” said Sami Benzina, a professor of public law at the University of Poitiers, noting that French institutions are designed to produce “clear majorities that can govern themselves.”
“It would be the first time in the Fifth Republic that a government could not be assembled for lack of a solid majority,” he said.
Some analysts and politicians have suggested that a broad cross-party coalition could span from the Greens to the more moderate conservatives. But France is not used to forming coalitions and several political leaders have ruled it out.
Another possibility is a caretaker government that handles day-to-day operations until there is a political breakthrough. But this too would be a departure from French tradition.
If none of these solutions work, the country could be plunged into months of political stalemate.
Will the vote end in violence?
The campaign, one of the shortest in modern French history, was clouded by a tense atmosphere, racist incidents and acts of violence.
A television news program filmed a couple supporting the National Rally lashing out at a black neighbor, telling her to “go to the doghouse.” A TV presenter of North African descent has revealed a racist letter he received at home. A bakery in Avignon was burnt down and covered with homophobic and racist labels.
Gérald Darmanin, France’s interior minister, said on Friday that more than 50 people — candidates, their deputies or their supporters — had been “physically attacked” during the campaign.
There are fears that the post-election protests will turn violent. Authorities have deployed about 30,000 security forces across the country, including about 5,000 in the Paris region, to deal with potential unrest.
Kathryn Porter contributed to the report.
