Corporate America prevents darkness, as do investors.
Ford and General Motors executives say they cannot appreciate what is in front. There is a lot of fog even to risk a guess, so both companies have suspended profits – it signals for future sales and profits – leaving investors to navigate on their own. And the automakers are not the only ones. A wide range of companies, such as Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, Skechers footwear, UPS and Cummins engine manufacturer, say they can’t talk confident about the future.
It’s again a winning season on Wall Street, and it’s a strange one. Usually, companies negotiating on the Stock Exchange release their recent financial data every three months and then discuss what to expect in the coming weeks. Not this time.
Back performance data is available as usual, but is already ancient history. The imposition of Trump’s administration, off, the imposition of the steepest invoices in a century has shifted the prospects for the global economy and for individual businesses so thoroughly that many executives, especially those directly influenced by invoices, cannot be meaningful.
“Since the short -term risks associated with invoices and the potential range of results, we are suspending guidance for the whole year 2025,” Sherry House, head of Ford’s financial director, said this week.
It has listed some of the things that Ford does not know: “These short -term risks include, inter alia: the supply chain disorder throughout the industry that affects production, future or increased prices in the US, and other tariff changes, The possible impact on the market is a list, but they are realistic.
It is not strange that “uncertainty” has become a word for corporate executives. It was given to 87 % of profits this season, compared to 38 % in the previous three months, according to John Butters, Vice President and Factset analyst. Executives used “invoices” in 93 % of profit calls. The “recession” came to 30 % of these discussions, compared to 3 % in the previous quarter.
Stable financial and market evaluations require the knowledge of how far the administration will proceed with invoices and other issues that weigh consumers and businesses. At the moment, it is impossible to know.
Consider the precarious state of US relations with the three largest trading partners, Mexico, Canada and China.
President Trump wants the US military to enter Mexico to fight drug cartels. Last Sunday, he confirmed that he had urged Claudia Sheinbaum, a Mexican president, to approve an US military invasion.
In a statement last weekend he told the Mexican public how he answered. “I told him,” No, President Trump, our territory is inadmissible, our sovereignty is unacceptable, our sovereignty is not for sale. “
But is this really the end of the subject? With Mr Trump, it would be unfair to do this case.
Then there is Canada. At a White House meeting last week with Mark Carney, Canada’s new Prime Minister, Trump insisted, once again, that one day Canada would become the 51st state. Prime Minister Carney quickly replied: “It is not for sale that he will never be for sale, never.” Mr Trump could have left quite well alone – but he didn’t. “Never say never,” the president said.
Because North America’s production in Canada, Mexico and the United States are interrelated, diplomatic relations between the three countries are directly related to the prospects of large car companies. Where duties will end up, they are vital to the car industry – and, of course, for American workers and consumers. Without more certainty, production will slow down or stop and prices will increase.
But they are not only automatically affected by Mr Trump’s threatening threats and rules. Almost everywhere you look, you can find companies that deal with incomplete maneuvering to maximize profits and face possible prices, whatever they will end up.
Get Apple. Tim Cook, chief executive of the company, said in a profit call of May 1 that the invoices of three months from June are more likely to add $ 900 million to Apple costs. But, he said, the assessment presupposes that “today’s global invoices, policies and applications do not change for quarter balance and no new invoices are added”. This case, of course, is probably not valid. It may be partly the reason why Mr Cook warned that “this assessment should not be used to make projections for future quarters”.
Many Apple products have been manufactured in China for years, but even this is changing quickly due to invoices.
“We expect the majority of iPhones sold in the US will have India as a country of origin and Vietnam will be the country of origin for almost all iPad, Mac, Apple Watch and Airpods products,” Mr Cook said. “China will continue to be the country of origin for the overwhelming majority of overall sales of products outside the US”
How many iPhones and other Apple gadgets will cost and if Apple can keep its fat 47 % gross margin in the following quarters, they are critical questions for investors in the giant company.
So are the US relations with China, which have fallen to their lowest deviation for decades. US invoices in many Chinese products now amount to 145 %, a level so high that it is equivalent to “the equivalent of an embargo”, in the words of Scott Bessent, the Minister of Finance. Apple is currently taking advantage of a temporary exemption from invoices to China smartphones, although higher invoices to semiconductors (key ingredients of smartphones and much more) are considered by Trump’s administration and smartphone exemption can be canceled. In addition, Apple has been put under pressure to shift the construction to the United States, which will also increase the cost of the iPhone.
The first official US-Kinez meeting since the launch of the trade conflict has been scheduled for this weekend in Geneva. But both sides have reduced expectations. It represents a principle, they say, but it is not very likely that there will be meaningful negotiations.
Due to the distortions caused by tariffs, financial data has become difficult to analyze. Businesses and consumers rushed to buy imported goods during the first months of the year before kicking the invoices. The US trade deficit has increased, which influenced gross domestic elements for the first trimester – pressing what would be three months of positive growth on negative territory. And the increase in imports may already be over. China’s container ships from US West Coast ports has collapsed, which could mean lack of imported products on the shelves of US stores in a few weeks.
“The uncertainty about financial prospects has increased further,” Federal Reserve said in a statement last week. And Jerome H. Powell, the Fed President, said in a press conference: “There is so much uncertainty about scale, scope, timetable and invoice persistence.” Until it is clear whether the greatest forthcoming financial threat of invoices is the highest inflation or the slowdown in the economy – both could grow, in a terrible phenomenon known as Stainglation – the Fed will keep interest rates firmly, Mr Powell said.
The stock market was remarkably durable, taking into account the scale of the impending, self -injured injury that could bring invoices to the American economy. Stock analysts have begun, so slowly, to take into account the shock invoice in their estimates. However, while they are slowing down the increase in profits for US companies, they did not, for the most part, the possibility of recession included. It is a pencil in a possible decrease in profit growth rate this year-but they expect profits to continue to grow-with a re-emergence in 2026. If they are right, the stock market is likely to increase in the next two years.
And they may be right. But, really, they are based on these views on minimal evidence. Investors facing the risk will want to place a significant amount in a safe place for the short term because US government policy can overcome markets. It is not a pleasant perspective, but it is what the financial situation requires.
