To a large extent, the electric vehicle market in the United States operates on democratic policies. There are federal tax credits for car buyers. Subsidies for the manufacture of batteries. Cheap loans to build electric car factories. Grants for chargers. Regulations that push automakers to sell more zero-emissions vehicles.
All that support — in the hundreds of billions of dollars — could disappear as soon as President-elect Donald J. Trump is sworn in, despite his close relationship with Elon Musk, chief executive of electric car maker Tesla.
Mr. Trump and Republicans in Congress say they plan to eliminate most federal aid for electric cars and trucks and reverse emissions rules, raising doubts about the future of such vehicles and the billions of dollars automakers have invested to design and to construct.
But many auto industry experts say market forces and technological advances will eventually lead to a long-term transition to electric vehicles, no matter how far Republicans go to undo President Biden’s climate agenda.
The prices of batteries, the most expensive part of an electric vehicle, are falling rapidly. Already, many electric cars cost no more than comparable gasoline models when fuel savings and maintenance are taken into account.
Technology is improving rapidly. Batteries are becoming lighter and smaller, while allowing faster charging and longer distances. And more than 12,000 public high-voltage chargers were added in the United States in 2024, a 33 percent increase from the previous year, according to Rho Motion, a research firm.
Automakers have a strong financial interest in promoting electric vehicles regardless of who is in the White House. They need to earn a return on the investment they have made in production facilities. And failure to keep up with the technology could leave them vulnerable to emerging Chinese rivals that are all-in on electric vehicles.
“No matter what policy changes come from the new administration, we will abide by them and adjust accordingly,” Randy Parker, CEO of Hyundai Motor America, told reporters during a conference call last week.
“Make no mistake about it,” he added, “we are committed to electrification.”
Hyundai recently began production of its popular Ioniq 5 car at a new $7.6 billion plant near Savannah, Ga. The factory complex, which will employ 8,500 people, including Hyundai suppliers, once it reaches capacity, is one of the biggest examples of the jobs and investment electric vehicles have created.
There’s no doubt that sales of battery-powered cars, which generally cost more up front than comparable gasoline cars, will take a hit if Republicans repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, legislation that includes the $7,500 credit and subsidies for battery manufacturing, charger installation and electric school buses.
Representative Mike Johnson, Republican of Louisiana, a major oil and gas producer, repeated the threat after his re-election as House speaker this month. “We’re going to save our automakers’ jobs, and we’re going to do that by ending the ridiculous EV mandates,” he said.
Analysts note that sales of electric vehicles in Germany fell 27 percent last year after the country’s government cut incentives for car buyers.
“If incentives go away, that’s definitely going to have an impact on sales,” said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry information at Cox Automotive.
On average, an electric car in the United States sold for $55,105 in 2024, compared to $48,165 for a gasoline-powered car, according to Cox.
But the price gap is half of what it was two years ago. Several more affordable models are coming this year, and many analysts expect electric vehicles to cost the same or less than combustion engine cars by the end of the decade.
General Motors sells an electric Chevrolet Equinox for about $35,000 and plans to revive the Chevrolet Bolt this year at a lower price. Later this year, Honda will begin producing electric cars in Ohio. The Japanese company has not announced a price but is known for its affordable vehicles.
Tesla has said it will start selling a less expensive vehicle by the middle of the year, but has given few details. Later this year, Volvo plans to start selling a version of the EX30 that is expected to cost less than $37,000.
“We’re going to be able to bring the cost of EVs down to less than internal combustion engine vehicles,” said Kurt Kelty, GM’s vice president for batteries. “That’s what we’re aiming for.”
Many states, including Colorado, New York and Washington, provide subsidies for electric vehicles that will remain in place. California Gov. Gavin Newsom said the state would revive its incentives if the federal tax credits were eliminated.
In China, sales of electric vehicles have surged as prices have fallen to the same level as gasoline cars or even lower, foreshadowing what could eventually happen in the United States. Half of all new cars sold in China are electric or plug-in hybrids, compared with about 10 percent in the United States.
When price was no longer an obstacle, Chinese car buyers focused on the advantages of electric vehicles, including software features that would be difficult to install in gasoline cars, said Hagen Heubach, who heads the automotive business unit of SAP, a German company software. “A market can turn around very quickly,” he said.
Chinese automakers’ success and global expansion are also putting pressure on American and European automakers to keep developing technology or risk being overtaken.
BYD, based in Shenzhen, China, produced 4.3 million electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles last year, joining the big leagues of the global auto industry. BYD does not manufacture vehicles that run exclusively on fossil fuels.
Most auto executives believe electric cars will eventually take over, though they disagree on when that will happen. Electric vehicle sales rose 8 percent last year in the United States, while sales of fossil-fuel-only cars fell 2 percent, according to Cox.
Sales of plug-in hybrids, which can travel about 40 miles on battery power before a gasoline engine kicks in, rose 19 percent. This suggests that many consumers are interested in driving electric even if they are not ready to give up gasoline.
Only a small number of cars qualify for the federal buyer tax credit in any case. The Inflation Reduction Act limited eligibility for the tax credits to vehicles that have a certain percentage of parts made either in the United States or by its trade allies. The requirements become more stringent every year, forcing some vehicles to drop off the list. As of January 1, many models, including the Volkswagen ID.4 and Ford Mustang Mach-E, are no longer eligible.
Republicans are also expected to take aim at a provision that would allow leasing companies to collect the $7,500 credit on all battery-powered cars, regardless of where they are made. Leasing companies typically pass the savings on to customers.
Eliminating the credits would reduce electric car sales by more than 300,000 vehicles a year, equivalent to about three months of sales in 2024, according to a study published in October by professors from Stanford University. the University of Chicago; the University of California, Berkeley; and Duke University.
But the researchers also noted that many buyers would have bought electric cars even without incentives. It seems some drivers are willing to pay more because battery-powered cars have quick, quiet acceleration. can be billed at home at a lower cost than a gas station crew. and no need for oil changes and other regular maintenance.
Of course, many car buyers may remain reluctant to buy one for years.
Nearly half of Americans recently polled by consulting firm Deloitte were concerned that electric cars can’t travel far enough between charges. However, most people rarely travel more than 60 miles from home, the survey found, and most electric models can comfortably travel 200 to 300 miles without stopping.
It’s not a given that Republicans will overturn every Democratic policy on electric vehicles, because many of them have supported new plants in states like Tennessee, Kentucky and South Carolina. Republicans would kill jobs in their own strongholds.
The close circle of Mr. Trump includes Mr. Musk, whose electric car company Tesla accounts for nearly half of electric vehicles sold in the United States, is benefiting from the credits. Mr. Musk has advocated removing subsidies for electric cars, but it’s unclear how he will use his influence when Mr. Trump becomes president. Tesla did not respond to a request for comment.
The promises of the pre-election campaign of Mr. Trump included “stopping attacks on gas-powered cars,” Caroline Levitt, a spokeswoman for the president-elect’s transition, said in an email. He suggested that he would take a more balanced approach. “President Trump will support the auto industry,” he said, “allowing room for both natural gas cars and electric vehicles.”
However, EV advocates worry about the disruption that is likely to occur. Albert Gore III, executive director of the Zero Emission Transportation Association and son of the former Democratic vice president, said slower sales could undermine efforts to develop sources of lithium and other battery materials in the United States. China currently dominates this supply chain.
Mining companies have been able to “raise capital markets money and invest in US production capacity on the back of firm demand commitments from US automakers,” Mr. Gore. “That would be the most severe impact.”
Even a modest slowdown in electric vehicle sales could seriously hurt efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, environmentalists said.
“We’re probably not moving fast enough right now,” said John Boesel, president of Calstart, a business- and government-backed nonprofit group that promotes clean transportation. “So any attempts to delay or slow things down will have a negative impact for decades, if not centuries, into the future.”
