President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has already faced a terrifying week as foreign officials gathered in Europe for talks about the future of his country.
Trump’s administration required $ 500 billion in Ukrainian mineral rights, canceled Ukraine’s discharge from US invoices for steel and a leading American skeptic military aid for Kiev, Vice President JD Vance, was on the way to Europe. Meeting with the Ukrainian leader.
But on Wednesday, things went from bad to worse. Mr Trump’s Minister of Defense gave Ukraine’s hard evaluation of the prospects in her war with Russia. Mr Trump then announced that he had spoken to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, a call that Mr Trump was described as the opening of talks to end the war – without a clear role for Mr Zelensky.
The phone call also wrote the end of US attempts to isolate Russia diplomatically after its full invasion of Ukraine almost three years ago
“It is in the heels of geopolitics,” said Mr Zelensky, Cliff Kupchan, president of Group Eurasia, a Washington -based risk analysis company for Mr Zelensky.
Mr Trump’s actions in the last two days – which included an exchange of prisoners with the Kremlin that liberated an American teacher – marked a thawing relationship between the United States and Russia that could favor Mr Putin in a peace deal , leaving Ukraine on the sidelines.
Mr Trump also called on the leader of Ukraine on Wednesday, but in a social position of the media did not mention how, or if Mr Zelensky would find in peace talks.
Mr Zelensky will meet with Mr Vance and Foreign Minister Marco Rubio at the Munich Annual Security Congress, which opens on Friday, Mr Trump said.
Negotiations on ending the most deadly war in Europe in generations will form the future of Ukraine, and recent developments mean that some of its territories are likely to remain under Russian occupation.
And they will shape Mr Zelensky’s political future. He has few options, but to go along with the US talks despite his deep skepticism, shared by most Ukrainians, from Mr Putin’s preparedness to negotiate without imposing burdensome conditions or exerting more military and financial pressure to withstand.
Until Thursday morning, it was a feeling that was widely swirled in Kiev, a city that was now hit in the evening with Russian rockets and exploding aircraft.
Volodymyr Fesenko, a political analyst, wrote on Facebook that Mr Putin was probably playing Trump’s administration for time. “He is not going to reconcile the end of war, as Trump’s team wants,” he wrote.
Mr Trump was not the only one who gave in love news in Ukraine. The new US Defense Minister Pete Hegseth told Europe allies on Wednesday that it was “unrealistic” for Ukraine to return to its borders as it was before Russia’s military invasion in 2014.
And he added that the United States did not support Ukraine’s goal of joining NATO to secure any peacekeeping settlement, calling it “unrealistic”.
Territory in Ukraine
Russian supported
schismatic
control
Russia was seized
Crimea in 2014.
Territory in Ukraine
Russia seized Crimea
in 2014.
Russian supported
separate control
Mr Zelensky has played weak hands long before. In the days of the start of Russia’s invasion, he fell from a bunker to film the video selfies that gathered his country and much of the world in the cause of Ukraine.
He now faces a central moment for his country in a reduced position, sinking into domestic polls and taking a cold shoulder from his most important ally.
Mr Zelensky has twice in recent days said he was willing to negotiate with Mr Putin if the Western allies offer security guarantees in a settlement. At his nightlife in the Nation on Wednesday, the Ukrainian leader was compromised, saying he had a “good and detailed discussion” with Mr Trump.
“We discussed many aspects – diplomatic, military, financial – and President Trump informed me about what Putin told him,” he added. “We believe that America’s power is sufficient to push Russia and Putin in peace with us, along with all our partners.”
Mr Putin, for his part, marked that Mr Zelensky would have to face a home election before Russia would accept his signature on a peace agreement.
Demand implies a Russian view of a possible three -step process to negotiate an arrangement in the war, according to a person who had recent talks on settlement scenarios with senior Russian officials.
. It provides for an initial truce and preliminary agreement, followed by elections in Ukraine and only then a binding settlement of peace, man said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss private talks.
There have been some bright points for Ukraine. Shortly after his inauguration, Mr Trump criticized Mr Putin hard, saying that he was “destroying” Russia with war.
And while Mr Trump’s claim for Ukraine minerals comes at high costs for Kiev, he has also been regarded by Ukrainian officials as a promising sign.
Talks on mineral rights, which began on Wednesday with a visit to Kiev by US Finance Minister Scott Bessent, are opening a path to Mr Trump to continue the military aid, claiming to have secured a benefit to the United States.
“They have actually agreed to do this, so at least we do not feel stupid,” Mr Trump said of Ukraine’s willingness to render her natural resources in an interview with Fox News on Monday. “Otherwise, we are stupid. I told them, “We have to take something. We cannot continue to pay this money. ““
This was before Russia and the United States showed a new willingness to work together. On Tuesday, his friend and envoy, Trump, Steve Witkoff, threw a private jet in Moscow to recover a prisoner American teacher, Marc Fogel, a remarkable conciliation gesture from Moscow. In return, the Kremlin said, the United States will hand over a Russian cyber, Alexander Vinnik, back to Russia.
Mr Zelensky rejected Mr Putin’s repeated allegations that he is an illegal leader and that Ukraine must lift the military law and hold elections. (The Ukrainian elections were delayed in accordance with military law following Russia’s invasion in 2022.
Ukrainian officials say they are seeing the Russian demand for democratic elections as part of a coercion to destabilize the government and force Ukraine to leave its guard for voting. They urge Trump’s administration not to support the idea.
“It is the Russians who raise the issue of elections because they need their man in Ukraine,” Mr Zelensky said in an interview with British Broadcasting ITV News aired last weekend. “If we suspend the military law, we may lose the army. And the Russians will be happy because the attributes of the spirit and capacity of battle will be lost.”
Within Ukraine, however, his domestic opponents are quietly preparing for a possible campaign.
Despite his reduced regime in talks, he is too early to delete Mr Zelensky, a former actor and a specialized leader in a crisis, said Mr Kupchan, an Eurasian analyst. “It has been shown to be quite specialized counterparty,” he said. “I don’t feel we are in the final act of any game yet.”
Mr Zelensky is preparing for talks, as the momentum on the main front of the war in the Donbas area of eastern Ukraine has favored Russia for more than a year. It is not clear how long Russia can maintain extremely high losses, which have been estimated by military analysts to at least hundreds of daily.
And Ukraine enters talks with a piece of leverage: its control of a few hundred square miles of Russian territory in the Kursk region last summer, an invasion that was deeply annoying in the Kremlin. Mr Zelensky said he wants to exchange ground in Kursk for Russian Ukrainian land, something that Mr Putin will almost certainly resist.
If the momentum of some dozen or hundreds of yards of progress per day continued through negotiations, it would give Moscow an advantage. Subsequently, any delay from Ukraine when accepting the ceasefire conditions will cost the KIEB territory.
However, Russia’s progress has been slowed in November of the monthly monthly meter of the precipitated territory, according to the Institute of War Study, a detailed US -based team.
In January, for example, Russia occupied about 40 fewer square miles than in December, the Institute said. Military analysts have warned that it is not possible to determine how important this fall is.
Anton Troianovski They contributed reports.