Tucked away in a patch of dying grass on the outskirts of Islamabad, the gathering hardly looked like a political gathering at the height of an election season. Two dozen men sat in plastic chairs in silence. There were no posters to promote a campaign, no microphones for speeches, no sound system to amplify the crowd.
Even the candidate, Aamir Mughal, was missing: he had gone into hiding months earlier, with the first signs of a military crackdown on his political party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI. Authorities had already raided his home. arrested two of his sons and filed a case against him in connection with anti-military demonstrations.
“We are being pressured to quit the party and quit politics,” Mr. Mughal said in an interview from a safe house where he was staying before heading out for rallies this weekend. “It’s all part of an effort to weaken and eliminate the party.”
As Pakistan heads to the polls on Thursday, its powerful military is using a familiar playbook to sideline its nemesis of the hour, crippling the PTI in the first national election since the party’s leader, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, defied the generals and was ousted by Parliament in 2022.
PTI candidates were arrested and forced to denounce the party, the candidates say. Their relatives have been arrested and their homes ransacked in an attempt to intimidate them, the candidates, their relatives and human rights monitors say. Officials have barred other PTI candidates from campaigning, censored the party’s news coverage and used internet blackouts to block PTI leaders’ live-streamed speeches. The trawl net has also trapped hundreds supporters who have been detained.
Last week, Mr Khan, who has been jailed since August, was sentenced to 10 years in prison on charges of leaking state secrets and 14 years in a separate corruption case. On Saturday, Mr. Khan was sentenced to an additional seven years in prison, as was his wife, Bushra Bibi, on charges that their marriage violated the law.
While military intervention in Pakistan’s elections is nothing new – Mr Khan himself was a beneficiary in 2018 – the current crackdown has been more visible than those in previous years, analysts say, making this vote one of the least reliable in 76 years history of Pakistan.
“These elections will have no legitimacy, even less than the 2018 elections,” said Zaigham Khan, a political analyst and columnist based in Islamabad, the capital. “And if an elected government doesn’t have legitimacy, you can’t expect to see political stability or economic stability.”
The military has a heavier hand as it faces a particularly tumultuous time in Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation of 240 million people where frustration with the generals’ iron grip has boiled over in recent months.
For most of Pakistan’s existence, the military either led the country directly or exerted enormous influence over civilian governments. When Mr Khan was ousted after a row over the army leadership, he accused the generals of orchestrating the move. At rallies attended by thousands of supporters, Mr Khan railed against these generals by name – a direct criticism once unheard of in a country where people protested only in code, referring to the military as “the establishment”.
Viral videos produced by Mr Khan’s party have fueled disenchantment with the military among a large base of young supporters coming to terms for the first time with what the generals’ power means for the country’s seemingly eternal quest for sustainable politics. When Mr. Khan was arrested in May, hundreds of protesters attacked military installations in scenes once unimaginable.
In the months since, the military has sought to regain control and make clear that its hand in politics will be permanent, analysts say.
Government officials have denied any illegal meddling in the election to oust the PTI. They defended the arrests of PTI members and leaders as a necessary response to the violent protests in May.
“It seems that the party sees its defeat looming large and is using the victim card to cover up the criminal actions of some of its leaders,” said Murtaza Solangi, the interim information minister. “The law has taken its course,” he added.
Most election observers expect a victory for the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or PMLN, the party of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif — which fell out of favor with the military in 2017, only to find favor again in this election.
The crackdown has made this perhaps the quietest election in Pakistan in decades. Streets that would normally be filled with political gatherings have been left empty. For weeks, many were convinced that the election would not even take place on the scheduled date. By discouraging and confusing PTI supporters, analysts said, the military hoped to dissuade them from going to the polls.
“It seems unlikely that PTI voters will turn out. they feel they already know the election result, it’s predetermined,” said Mohammad Waseem, professor of political science at Lahore University of Management Sciences.
Last month, Mr Khan’s party was banned from using the iconic cricket bat symbol – a nod to his sporting fame – to represent its candidates on the ballot. This dealt a critical blow to the party in a country where about 40 percent of people are illiterate and voters rely on symbols to identify candidates.
PTI candidates have also effectively lost their ability to campaign. Permits to hold public rallies have either been revoked or denied outright, according to campaigners and documents seen by The New York Times. Printing companies have been told not to produce PTI posters, workers say. Those that manage to print quickly disappear.
To drum up support, PTI candidates campaign in the shadows at small, private rallies. Last Monday night, dozens of PTI supporters gathered in a dilapidated apartment building on the outskirts of the eastern city of Lahore to hear a PTI candidate speak.
Men entered through the unlit street, using the flashlights on their phones to climb three concrete steps to the roof. Perched on a railing was a green and red PTI flag.
“We are going door to door to spread the message of Imran Khan in these difficult times,” candidate Wasim Qadir told the crowd. “I know you all support us.” He reminded voters that, with the party’s cricket bat icon banned, he would be represented on the ballot by a wicket, while another candidate used a medal symbol.
Mr Qadir had planned to hold a public rally earlier in the day after receiving permission from the authorities for the first time since launching his campaign. But that morning, four unmarked vehicles drove up to his campaign headquarters, and security officials arrested one of his drivers and confiscated a sound system, according to his campaign manager. The message was informal but clear: No gathering would be allowed.
The crackdown on PTI supporters has reached pockets of Pakistani society that were once safe from military harassment. Women have been arrested in droves in connection with violent protests against the military in May. Even Pakistan’s elite – which traditionally maintained close ties to the military – has been swept away.
In Lahore, a major metropolis and capital of Punjab province, the arrest in May of the granddaughter of a former army chief sent shockwaves through the upper echelons of Pakistani society. The granddaughter, Khadijah Shah, a known PTI supporter, faces charges of terrorism, sedition and rioting.
Ms Shah, who has denied involvement in any illegal activity, was granted bail last month after spending seven months in jail. Many believe the military was using her to send a warning to the rest of the country’s elite: their days away from the military are over.
The intimidation campaign has confused even some who say they do not support the PTI In October, an Islamabad-based podcaster, Imran Noshad Khan, was arrested and held for three days after he published a podcast critical of the military. He has been charged with sedition.
“It has a chilling effect,” Mr Khan said. The message, he added, is this: “Don’t provide a platform for people who criticize the establishment for its role in politics.”
