Canada’s Canadian banker has taken a political miracle, leading his party from the electoral abyss to a rare fourth term in power and securing the top government work after entering the electoral policy just three months ago.
Mark Carney, the country’s new leader, told Canadians that he was the right man to withstand President Trump and that, with his economy, he knew how to boost the country’s lack of economy and strengthen it in hectic times.
Now he has to do all this, and quickly, as his country moves from a prolonged period of political turmoil and faces the fall of a trade war with his closest ally and economic Partner: The United States.
Mess at home
When Mr Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, announced in January that he would resign after 10 years leading Canada, he created a rare opportunity that Mr Carney jumped.
But after Mr Carney won the fight to replace Mr Trudeau in March as a prime minister and leader of the liberal party, he also inherited a dirty home situation that he now needs to take on.
The Canadian parliament was not at a meeting before Christmas, after Mr Trudeau suspended his activities to hold the liberal leadership elections that increased Mr Carney.
As a result, the country has been in a state of political instability for months, without the ability to exercise a legislative agenda.
And Mr Carney does not yet have his own cabinet – he made minor changes to those he inherited by Mr Trudeau, but is likely to put his personal stamp on the government by choosing top ministers now who won the national elections.
Mr Carney will have to move quickly to win the necessary parliamentary allies and to ensure the stability of his party, while at the same time becoming vulnerable to the collapse through votes without confidence, which would challenge new elections.
“The first class of work is to take a cabinet and take the parliament back as soon as possible,” said Matthew Holmes, senior director of Canadian Chambers of Commerce, representing business interests.
“We need to see that the prime minister is coming to the legislation quickly,” Mr Holmes said. “There’s no honeymoon for this prime minister.”
Stability right now
A key step towards the Canadians who worked in Mr Carney’s favor in the vote was that he was exactly the right leader to browse the rearrangement of world trade and security caused by Mr Trump.
Mr Carney’s previous experience, which led to significant institutions through turmoil, including the Bank of England through Brexit, was crucial to convince many Canadians who argued that his credentials were aligned for the challenges facing Canada.
Canadian businesses are looking for Mr Carney to restore the sense of order for trade with the United States. Mr Trump’s invoices for Canadian goods were a moving target, with the administration pulling back to certain contributions, while applying new, without any sense of coherent economic logic. The result has stopped in the private sector in investment in Canada, Mr Holmes said. Mr Carney should face it immediately, he said.
“The capital is frozen and paralyzed by watching the trade war and does not know what the future will be,” Mr Holmes said. “Must introduce certainty to it.”
Anti-trump
Mr Carney’s campaign over Mr Trump’s threats to Canada lifted him into a worldwide form against Trump. He He is the first major leader to be elected in an explicit campaign against Trump by Mr Trump’s re -election.
“As I have warned for months, America wants our land, our resources, our water,” Mr Carney said to supporters who gathered in Ottawa, the capital of Canada, in the early hours of the morning to celebrate his victory. “President Trump is trying to break us so he can ever possess us, this will never happen,” he added, as the crowd ran.
Later on Tuesday, the two men spoke by phone, reported their offices and agreed to meet soon.
Mr Carney’s fiery rhetoric could prove a problem if the two leaders speak in person. Mr Carney said he wants to win the respect of Mr Trump, while being open to discussions about what the future relationship between the two countries will look like on various issues, including trade and security.
“There is an appetite to the west to find an anti-Trump figure to take over the cloak of the free world leader,” said Stephen Wertheim, a senior partner of Carnegie for international peace. “I think it’s a dangerous suggestion.”
“The minute that the media begins to issue a foreign leader as the hand of World Resistance against Trump, which will set a goal on the back of the leader,” Mr Wertheim added.
Mr Carney is likely to hit a thinner tone behind closed doors with Mr Trump, but the Canadian audience will seek the disobedience and pride he has promised on the campaign trail.
And the fact remains that the United States has imposed invoices in key Canadian sectors, such as the car industry, and that Mr Trump continues to say regularly that he wants Canada to become the 51st state, including Canada’s election day.
Mr Wertheim said Mr Carney should ignore the threats and focus on reaching an agreement. “I think Carney should not be too firm in the threat of attachment,” he said. “If Trump makes one. It will probably be half a joke. And Carney will have to catch it back and smile.”
Luck
An early test of Mr Carney’s ability to manage Mr Trump will take place when hosting the summit of the 7 -leaders’ team of industrial economies in Kananaskis, Alberta in June.
Mr Trump is expected to attend and will be among the nearest America allies, all of them have hit US invoices.
Mr Carney, on the other hand, will be among his friends on his own threshold. He has a personal relationship with President Emmanuel Macron of France and Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain and seeks to negotiate military spending Treat Ursula von der Leyen, the top official of the European Union.
It is not clear what, if anything, it will be decided at the Summit, as global rallies such as they tend to be for the coordination of politics at a higher level rather than performing anything specific.
Still, there is a great room for error. The last time Mr Trump attended a G7 summit in Canada, he had a blow with Mr Trudeau, left without signing a joint Anodyne announcement and then called Mr Trudeau “two sides”.
Mr Carney will need to manage the event closely to try to prevent anymore.
“The G7 leaders’ summit in June will really shape the early assessment of his success,” Mr Holmes said. “This is what he struggled. He can handle a very complex geopolitical international situation.”
