Maria and her husband, Aleksandr, are confident that President Vladimir V. Putin will secure a fifth term as Russia’s leader in this weekend’s presidential election.
But the couple, who live in Moscow with their three children, are not so sure about what will come next. Foremost on their minds are fears that Mr Putin, emboldened by winning a new six-year term, may call for another mobilization of troops to fight in Ukraine. Aleksandr, 38, who left Russia shortly after Mr Putin announced the first mobilization in September 2022 but recently returned, is even considering leaving the country again, his wife said.
“I only hear about mobilization – that there is an offensive planned for the summer and that the troops need to be rotated,” Maria, 34, said in a WhatsApp exchange. He refused to allow the couple’s family name to be used, fearing repercussions from the government.
Many Russians are worried about a number of issues ahead of the vote, which began on Friday and is being held over three days. Although Russian authorities have denied that another mobilization for war is planned, the sense of unease remains.
The concerns appear to be based on the possibility that Mr Putin could use his unlimited power to make changes he avoided before the vote. Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center, one of the few independent pollsters in Russia, said these concerns are still felt mainly by the minority of Russians who oppose the government.
While a possible mobilization remains the biggest cause for concern, there is also concern about finances and the economy. Some Russians worry that the ruble, which has been propped up by the government after falling last year, could be allowed to depreciate again, raising the cost of imports. Businessmen worry about higher taxes and opposition activists expect more crackdowns on dissent.
“People are very worried,” said Nina L. Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs at the New School in New York who regularly visits Russia. “Uncertainty is the worst, as long as the Russian is used to uncertainty.”
The concerns reflect the current mood in Russia, where many have learned to hope for the best but expect the worst. The uncertainty has been exacerbated by a government that experts say has become increasingly authoritarian.
After more than two decades in power, Mr. Putin is not constrained by an opposition party in parliament or a strong civil society. Therefore, he is relatively free to act as he pleases.
Some experts say the Kremlin could use the results of the vote – expected to be a landslide victory for Mr Putin – to further suppress dissent and escalate the war in Ukraine, which was intended to be a quick “special military operation”, but it has turned into an uproar that has caused hundreds of thousands of casualties.
“In an authoritarian election, the results are predictable, but the consequences are not,” Ekaterina Shulman, a Russian political scientist, said in response to written questions from The New York Times. “If the system decides it has gone well and all is well, then the post-election period may be the time to make unpopular decisions.”
Ms Schulmann pointed to the example of Mr Putin’s last re-election in 2018, which was followed by a hugely unpopular increase in Russia’s retirement age.
Elections in Russia are tightly managed by the Kremlin through near-total control of the media and state-owned enterprises, whose workers are often pressured to vote. The election machine filters out undesirable candidates, and opposition activists have either been forced out or ended up in Russian prisons. The country’s most prominent dissident, Alexei A. Navalny, died last month in an Arctic penal colony where he had been imprisoned.
Although the outcome of the vote is not in doubt, the Russians are still preoccupied with the process. The vote will be the first since Mr Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022.
A Moscow consultant who works with Russian businesses said some of his clients had deliberately timed new stock offerings on the Moscow stock exchange so that they would take place in a relatively quiet period before the vote. He requested anonymity to avoid jeopardizing his relationship with his clients.
Russian consumers also rushed to buy cars at the start of the year after car market analysts suggested the run-up to the election might be the best time to buy because the ruble could depreciate once the vote is over. The number of new cars sold in Russia in January and February rose more than 80 percent compared to the same period last year, according to Avtostat, a news website about the Russian auto industry.
Businesses are worried the government will raise taxes after the vote. On Wednesday, Mr. Putin said the government would draw up new tax rules for individuals and private entities, and experts said that likely meant taxes would rise for both groups.
Yevgeny Nadorshin, chief economist at consultancy PF Capital in Moscow, said companies were particularly concerned about rising taxes and higher labor costs. “This would jeopardize Russia’s competitiveness,” he said.
Mr. Nadorshin also noted widespread rumors of another troop mobilization that, if it occurs, could further tighten the labor market for businesses, he said.
Mr. Volkov, of the Levada Center, said that most Russians, after the initial shock of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine and the mobilization that followed seven months later, had adjusted to the new world. Much of this was a result of the government’s efforts to boost morale by ensuring that the country’s economy remained healthy and pouring money into its industrial sector.
“There has been a serious redistribution of resources in favor of the majority, who feel they can now live a normal life without being directly involved in the war,” he said, referring to wage increases for factory workers and various social benefits.
But he pointed to growing polarization between Mr. Putin’s supporters and opponents.
“The mutual misunderstanding today is greater and more intense than before,” Mr. Volkov said.
Many Russian anti-Kremlin activists — those who remain in the country and those who have left — fear a new crackdown on dissent.
Yevgeny Chichvarkin, a Russian businessman and opposition activist in London, said he believed that after the election, dissidents would face a stark choice between fleeing or going to jail.
“Nothing will help. the choice will be either to go to prison or to leave the country,” he said in an interview with Zhivoy Gvozd, an independent Russian news outlet.
But some analysts have expressed doubts that Mr. Putin will do much more than he already has to quell the dissent.
“The system cannot be in a state of mobilization and stress forever,” said Aleksandr Kynev, a Russia-based political scientist specializing in regional politics. “If you give too much power to the security services, tomorrow they can remove you from power,” he said. “Vladimir Putin understands this well.”
Alina Lombzina contributed to the report.
1 Comment
jahnise litaay