Experts predict that northern Gaza will face famine conditions as soon as this month, with half the enclave’s population suffering from deadly levels of hunger, according to a new report by the global body that has ranked food security crises for decades.
The report, released Monday by the global initiative Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, predicted that famine is “imminent” for the 300,000 Palestinian citizens in northern Gaza, where such conditions will be created by the end of May. And by mid-July, up to 1.1 million people in Gaza could face what the group described as the worst stage of hunger: “extreme food shortages” and severe levels of hunger, death, destitution and acute malnutrition.
The bar graph shows the percentage of Gaza’s northern provinces and southern provinces experiencing different levels of food insecurity, ranging from stress (level 2) to famine (level 5).
Levels of food insecurity by region
Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis
Levels of food insecurity by region
Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis
The group — founded in 2004 by UN agencies and international aid groups, and known as the IPC — has classified a famine only twice: in 2011, in parts of Somalia, and in 2017, in parts of South Sudan. In these countries, relatively small percentages of the population met the panel’s criteria for famine conditions. In Gaza, residents of the critically endangered north make up more than 13 percent of the population.
According to the IPC, a famine occurs when three conditions are met: at least 20 percent of households have an extreme lack of food; At least 30 percent of children suffer from acute malnutrition. and at least two adults, or four children, for every 10,000 people die every day from starvation or malnutrition-related diseases. (Although IPC experts conduct and review the analysis required to classify a famine, only government and top UN officials can officially make an official declaration.)
The report notes that the first condition was already met and the second is likely to have been met. Collecting data on the third deaths linked to malnutrition is extremely difficult in a war zone, the group said. The death rate among children appeared higher than among adults, he added, but said it was “impossible to ascertain”.
At least 27 people, including 23 children, died from malnutrition, dehydration and a lack of infant formula, according to Gaza’s health ministry.
Shimon Freedman, a spokesman for Israel’s agency that oversees policy on the Palestinian territories, COGAT, reiterated Israel’s position on Monday that it “does not put any limits on the aid that can enter the Gaza Strip.”
And Eylon Levy, a spokesman for the Israeli government, called the report an “outdated picture” that “does not take into account the latest developments on the ground,” including major humanitarian initiatives last week. He also said Israel was taking “precautionary measures” to extend aid to northern Gaza.
Last week, Israel allowed a small World Food Program convoy to deliver food to northern Gaza for the first time since February 20. After the report was published, the agency’s chief economist, Arif Husain, warned that “time is running out” for many Gazans. “This is why children die,” he said. “If we don’t get in there, they’re not going to die in their 20s or 30s, they’re going to die in the hundreds and the thousands.”
Alex de Waal, a humanitarian crisis expert who has written a book on mass starvation, said the situation in Gaza was “unprecedented”.
“None of us who have worked in this field have ever seen anything like this,” he said. “It’s absolutely shocking.”
The IPC classifies acute food insecurity into five phases, ranging from minimal to catastrophic.
All of Gaza’s 2.2 million people are at least at the third, or crisis, level of food insecurity, meaning they are not eating enough and are malnourished. Nearly 40 percent are in the fourth, or emergency, phase, facing extreme food shortages and at increased risk of starvation-related death. And 30 percent are in the most severe stage, indicating they have almost no food and are facing critical levels of starvation and death.
In December, the group warned that famine could occur within six months unless the fighting stopped immediately and more humanitarian supplies arrived in the region. “Since then, the conditions necessary to prevent famine have not been met,” the latest report said.
The Famine Review Committee, a group at the IPC that studied the report’s nutritional analysis, said the famine could be prevented with “an immediate political decision to cease fire together with a significant and immediate increase in humanitarian and commercial access across the population of Gaza.”
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the report “a horrific indictment of conditions on the ground for civilians”. The hunger crisis, he said, “is an entirely man-made disaster – and the report makes it clear that it can be stopped.”
More than five months after the start of Israel’s campaign against Hamas, hunger experts estimate that almost the entire population of Gaza is dependent on food aid. Israel has eased restrictions on humanitarian deliveries it imposed soon after the October 7 Hamas attacks, but aid groups say aid reaching Gaza is not enough.
UNRWA, the UN agency that supports the Palestinians, said Gaza is receiving only a fraction of what is needed to prevent conditions from further deteriorating. Much of that aid doesn’t make it much further than where it crosses the border.
Josep Borrell Fontelles, the European Union’s top diplomat, urged Israel to allow “free, unhindered, safe humanitarian access.”
“Hunger cannot be used as a weapon of war,” he said in a statement.
Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, dismissed Mr Borel’s criticism, saying the country was allowing extensive air, land and sea aid.
Amy Schoenfeld Walker, Elena Shao and Farnaz Fashihi contributed to the report.
