The U.S. economic recovery from the pandemic has been stronger and more resilient than many experts expected, and the rebound in immigration is a big reason.
The resumption of the visa process in 2021 and 2022 has jump-started employment, allowing foreign-born workers to fill some workforce holes that remained in industries and locations after the pandemic shutdown. Immigrants also face a long-term need: replenishing the labor force, key to meeting job demands as births decline and older people retire.
Net immigration in the year ending July 1, 2023 reached its highest level since 2017. The foreign-born now make up 18.6 percent of the labor force, and the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next 10 years, immigration will keep the number of working Americans from sinking. Balancing job seekers and opportunities is also critical to tempering wage inflation and keeping prices under control.
International instability, financial crises, war and natural disasters have brought a new wave of arrivals that could help bridge the ever-widening gap between labor demand and job applicants. But that potential economic dividend must contend with the incendiary politics, logistical hurdles, and administrative delays the increase has created.
Visits to Texas on Thursday by President Biden and his likely election opponent, former President Donald J. Trump, underline the political tensions. Mr. Biden is seeking to address a border situation he recently called “chaos,” and Mr. Trump has vowed to close the door after record numbers crossed the border under the Biden administration.
Since the start of fiscal year 2022, about 116,000 have arrived as refugees, a status that comes with a federally funded resettlement network and immediate eligibility for work. A few hundred thousand others who have arrived from Ukraine and Afghanistan are entitled to similar benefits.
But far more – about 5.5 million – have been apprehended at borders and at airports and seaports. Not everyone is allowed to stay, but the vast majority who are receive minimal government assistance. Asylum seekers have faced long delays before they can work legally, and a busing campaign by southern governors has herded them into some cities struggling to absorb them.
Labor needs are often greater elsewhere. Steve Snyder, business manager for Plumbers and Steamfitters Local 157 in Lafayette, Ind., and City Council president, says his union is desperate for new members, especially given the new infrastructure work available in the area.
“I would welcome them with open arms, put them up in a hotel and try my best to connect them to our community, because we have a need,” Mr. Snyder said. “It’s going to be expensive, it’s going to be inconvenient, but it’s something that, in my opinion, has to happen.”
Immigrants have revitalized shrinking cities before. Anuj Gupta runs the Welcome Center, a Philadelphia nonprofit founded 20 years ago in an effort to reverse population decline by attracting immigrants. “This should be as bipartisan an issue as an issue can be in 2024 because the economy demands it, employers want it and people coming in are looking for work,” Mr. Gupta said.
The Biden administration acted to move immigrants into the workforce by extending temporary protection status to Venezuelans who were in the United States before July 31, 2023, a move that covers 472,000 people. It has also expanded the use of humanitarian parole for people coming from countries in turmoil, including Cuba, Haiti and Nicaragua. the designation generally lasts two years and requires applicants to have a financial sponsor in the United States.
Individuals in these categories are immediately eligible for work permits, but must be processed. The asylum process offers the prospect of legal work, but requires a wait of at least six months after applying for asylum. In 2022, it took an average of nine months to process one of these permits.
State and local governments in New York and Illinois began working at a high level late last year to move the documents forward. Agencies started hosting crowdfunding events to attract people and hiring shows for those who made it. Median processing times for work permits for asylum seekers and parolees are now under a month.
As a result, the number of work permits granted to asylum seekers, refugees and those covered by temporary protection and parole increased to more than 1.2 million in 2023 from about 423,000 in 2022, according to with data from US Citizenship and Immigration Services. Services.
But completing the paperwork is still a major hurdle. The number of adults crossing the border continues to exceed the number of work permit applications submitted. They are difficult for non-English speakers to fill out without legal help, which is in short supply, and often require fees and a permanent mailing address.
Catholic Charities of the Archdiocese of New York has helped thousands with the work permit paperwork process. It also trains migrants for specific roles, such as nannies, and offers safety training required for construction work.
One of the beneficiaries was Edgar Alayón.
Mr. Alayón, 32, was an accountant in Venezuela before he began walking away from his jobs because he did not support the Venezuelan government. He arrived in the United States in May, and Texas offered free flights to New York, where he had heard the city would provide shelter.
Mr. Alayón was suspended but did not work before receiving his work permit in December. This allowed him to find jobs in construction and rent a small room in an apartment.
But he only works a few days a week and his work permit is only valid until May 2025. His goal is to get a green card, which would relieve him of the fear of possible deportation and give him time to return to his previous his profession.
“God, I have to work on it, I will get my residence,” Mr. Alayón said through a translator. “It would be an honor to be a citizen of this city and the United States that gives us so many opportunities.”
But New York is not the best place to look for a job. The unemployment rate is 5.4 percent, significantly higher than the national average. Many positions typically occupied by immigrants, such as those in hotels and restaurants, have never fully recovered from the pandemic. This has forced people into jobs like food delivery, with low barriers to entry but high competition.
And the push for work permits for the newest arrivals has caused some resentment among the millions of undocumented immigrants who still have no path to legal work authorization.
“You have to make sure you’re not pitting them against each other,” said James Parrott, director of economic and fiscal policy at the New School’s Center for New York City Affairs. “I think over time it will be positive and they will integrate, but in the short term it’s very disturbing and people shouldn’t be dangerous about it.”
Dr Parrott said it would help if state governments made it easier to relocate to smaller towns where housing is more available than to the big cities where buses have been unloaded from Texas. Some immigrants have found their way to other places, often with the help of a free bus ticket, but it’s not always clear what resources and opportunities await them.
Even for those who have found a steady job, work permits are a temporary solution, while asylum courts remain swamped with applications that now take years to adjudicate, subjecting applicants to constant uncertainty.
Yusuf Ali Sendil’s experience offers a glimpse of what the future might look like for millions of younger arrivals with weak permission to stay in the United States.
A research psychiatrist from Turkey, Dr. Sendil said he lost his job for political reasons in 2017. He received a postdoctoral fellowship at Harvard University on a research visa and later applied for asylum. Long processing times for an initial work permit forced him to delay his start as a physician at Rutgers.
Because this license only lasts for two years, he has already applied for a renewal. But even though initial work permits now come quickly and last five years for some categories, renewals often take 16 months, according to federal data.
This means that Dr. Sendil could face another period without a work permit, which is potentially embarrassing for his patients and could derail his career.
“If I don’t get it on time, I lose my job, and if I don’t finish my residency, I can’t apply for jobs,” said Dr. thousands of people in similar situations. “All my colleagues are planning for positions after their residency, but I really can’t because I don’t know what will happen.”
