As Teslas and other electric vehicles dazzle car buyers with futuristic technology and dreams of a gasoline-free future, hybrid cars are starting to seem like yesterday’s news. Sales of the Toyota Prius, the benchmark for hybrids, have dropped 85% in a decade.
Now, a slowdown in electric car sales growth has led General Motors, Ford Motor and Volkswagen to back away from ambitious targets for these vehicles. And hybrid sales are strong, underscoring what may be 2023’s enduring reality check: Many Americans are highly receptive to electrification, but not ready for an all-electric car.
“Consumers want the same experience they had” with an internal combustion engine car, said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry information for Cox Automotive. “And we’re not there yet. Price is still the top barrier for most consumers.”
Americans bought a record 1.2 million electric vehicles last year, a gain of about 46 percent and a 7.6 percent share of all new car sales, according to Cox. But sales of hybrid vehicles grew even faster, up 65 percent to more than 1.2 million, increasing their market share to 8 percent from 5.5 percent, according to Edmunds. Add plug-in hybrids, and nearly one in 10 new cars combines a gasoline engine with electric motors to save fuel and boost performance.
Analysts say the stubbornly high prices of electric cars and concerns about public charging are pushing some car buyers to hybrids, including renters or urbanites who can’t charge a battery-powered car at home. Hybrids offer savings at the pump without having to plug in for hours or schedule trips around charging stations. Their batteries are much smaller and cost much less than the batteries of fully electric vehicles.
Buyers paid about $42,500 on average for hybrids in November, according to Edmunds, compared with $60,500 for electric vehicles and $47,500 for conventional models. There’s a plethora of affordable hybrid models, many starting around $30,000 — including a stylishly redesigned Prius that returns a model-record 57 miles per gallon. The electric vehicle market, by contrast, remains top of the line with luxury offerings.
Jim Farley, Ford’s chief executive, said mainstream consumers were fundamentally different from early adopters of electric vehicles with little encouragement or training from automakers.
“EVs continue to grow in spectacular numbers, but what’s changing is that the people who buy them are not willing to pay a premium,” Mr. Farley said in an interview. “Now we have to get costs under control and even—surprise, surprise—advertise.”
Ford is scaling back planned production of the F-150 Lightning truck and increasing production of the more affordable F-150 Hybrid by 20 percent. The automaker plans to quadruple total hybrid production in hopes of selling 100,000 this year. They include the hot Maverick compact pickup, whose 37-mpg hybrid version has beaten Ford’s most optimistic sales projections.
So why doesn’t Ford make all Mavericks hybrids? Mr Farley said the company remained committed to offering a full range of engines, including electric trucks that can act as mobile generators to power equipment, homes or even the power grid. Securing the batteries also takes a long time, Mr. Farley said, sometimes longer than building a new assembly line.
“We didn’t know a $30,000 truck would be so popular,” he said of the Maverick. “Ford has struggled to make money from small cars since the beginning of time.”
The hybrid resurgence mainly benefits Toyota, Honda and Hyundai Motor, including sister brand Kia.
These automakers account for about 90 percent of U.S. hybrid sales, followed by Ford. All continue to invest in the technology, even as GM, Volkswagen and other automakers commit to going all-electric.
Honda outdid itself in 2023, nearly tripling hybrid sales to 294,000 units. Hybrid versions of the Honda Accord sedan and CR-V sport utility vehicle now account for more than half of those models’ sales. This Accord combines comfort, quality and luxury-level amenities with up to 44 mpg combined driving, for $33,290 to start.
On track for record US sales in 2023, Hyundai, Kia and luxury brand Genesis have combined to sell more electric vehicles in the United States than any automaker except Tesla. However, Hyundai Motor remains bullish on hybrids, even after the Biden administration proposed regulations that would require two-thirds of new cars to be fully electric by 2032.
“Anyone who wants to survive in this business is making these electric investments,” said Steve Center, chief operating officer of Kia America. That includes Hyundai, which has pledged to invest $12 billion in plants in Alabama and Georgia.
But Mr. Center added that an electric vehicle might not serve the needs of a “cowboy in Montana with a truck.” Hybrids can help reduce emissions from these types of vehicles more quickly, he said.
Mr. Center offered a bold prediction: As internal combustion engine cars fade, all remaining gasoline models will adopt electricity in hybrid form. Gasoline cars won’t be able to compete without it, as consumers and regulators demand better fuel economy and reduced emissions.
“Everything has to be hybrid to begin with, because anyone can drive a hybrid, everywhere,” he said.
Toyota, the world’s largest carmaker, seems to be heading down that road. Within a few months, Toyota will offer only nine hybrid models, including one from the luxury Lexus brand. The company sold more than 640,000 hybrids in America last year, 29 percent of its total U.S. sales. sold around 15,000 fully electric vehicles.
David Christ, general manager of Toyota’s North America division, said the automaker expects to see 40 percent of electric sales in 2024. He echoed Mr. Center’s view about the outlook for combustion-engine cars.
“Over time, we’re not averse to going all-hybrid to take a faster step towards a greener future,” Mr Christ said.
Toyota’s belief in the democratization of hybrid technology has turned the company, once an environmental darling, into a whipping boy as it has been widely accused of dragging its feet on electric vehicles. If Toyota feels vindicated, Mr. Christ won’t admit it.
“A year ago, we were being grilled in the media because we didn’t believe in EVs,” he said. “We thought this was unfair, that we were not in the business of electrification. We started it. We have eight million hybrids on the road today, and each one reduces greenhouse gas emissions.”
But Mr. Christos added that the charging infrastructure for electric vehicles was not yet ready for the many millions of battery-powered cars, which is why sales of such vehicles have slowed.
“At the end of the day, the consumer drives this industry, not the manufacturer,” he said.
Toyota will plant its biggest flag in June. The redesigned 2025 Camry will only be offered as a hybrid. That might seem like a major gamble for the nation’s perennial best-selling sedan. Toyota sold about 290,000 Camrys last year, and just 35,000 were hybrids. If the new Camry can keep up its sales, Toyota will convert a few hundred thousand buyers to a roughly 50 mpg hybrid in one go. If not, the Camry franchise will take a huge hit.
However, Toyota is not taking a picture in the dark. When Toyota switched the Sienna to a full-hybrid lineup for the 2021 model year, it immediately became America’s best-selling minivan, up from fourth place.
But some auto experts said hybrids can only do so much.
Dave Cooke, senior vehicle analyst for the Union of Concerned Scientists, said hybrids were a critical, affordable tool that allowed millions of drivers to use less gas, but they remained a transitional technology. Long-term climate change goals still require a shift to electric vehicles powered by a renewable energy grid, he said.
“In our comments to the EPA and industry, it’s ‘Hey, put a hybrid on everything,'” Mr. Cook said, referring to the Environmental Protection Agency. “But we need even stricter standards to ensure that automakers meet rules about what is technologically possible.”
Mr. Cooke noted that the fuel economy of the nation’s fleet has remained flat for years, in part because of a shift toward pickups and SUVs. Recent gains are entirely due to the rise of electric vehicles, with hybrids playing a negligible role.
Chris Harto, transportation and energy policy analyst for Consumer Reports, agreed with that assessment. “Hybrids are buying some time, but EVs are where we need to go” to meet climate goals, he said.
However, Mr Harto laments the popular narrative pitting hybrids against electric vehicles.
“Both are taking market share from less efficient ICE vehicles,” Mr. Harto said, referring to internal combustion engines. “And there’s a lot of market share to capture.”
