Ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon are likely to hold for now, despite being tested to their limits over the weekend, as all sides want to avoid full-scale fighting for at least a few weeks, analysts said.
In southern Lebanon, Israeli troops remained in place after a deadline on Sunday to withdraw, amid Israeli claims that Hezbollah had broken its own promise to leave the region. In Gaza, Hamas failed to free a female hostage that Israel hoped would be freed on Saturday, prompting Israel to delay the agreed return of displaced Palestinians to their homes in northern Gaza.
But even as each side blamed the other for barring their deals, analysts said, both Israel and its adversaries had reason to remain flexible and temporarily overlook the other’s transgressions.
Hezbollah, though angry at Israel for keeping troops in southern Lebanon, would risk a devastating Israeli counterattack if it renewed its rockets at Israeli cities. Hamas wants to retain power in Gaza and risks losing it if war returns. And Israel must maintain the current arrangement in Gaza long enough to release at least two dozen hostages. Israeli leaders have also appeared eager to define President Trump, who has struggled on a promise to maintain peace in the Middle East.
Illustrating their desire to extend the Gaza ceasefire, Israel and Hamas appeared to resolve the weekend crisis close to midnight on Sunday. The Qatari government, a mediator between the sides, said the female hostage, Arbel Yehud, would be released this week along with two others who were released ahead of schedule. In return, Israel said it would allow displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza on Monday morning.
As for Lebanon, the White House announced that the ceasefire would be extended until February 18, although there was no immediate comment from Israel or Hezbollah. Lebanon’s prime minister’s office confirmed the extension.
Aaron David Miller, a former US negotiator in the Middle East peace talks, said: “It will take the next few weeks – beyond that it’s anyone’s guess.”
“These are not agreements between the United States and Switzerland. They are agreements that depend on each side giving the other a certain amount of discretion and room for maneuver,” he added. “That’s their weakness, but also their strength.”
That forging room ultimately allowed both to survive the weekend, even as Israeli troops shot and killed people in both Lebanon and Gaza who were trying to return to areas still controlled by Israel.
Lebanon’s health ministry said 22 people had been killed by Israeli fire in southern Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority’s news agency said one person had been killed in Gaza as large crowds in both places gathered near Israeli troops, demanding to go at home.
But by Monday morning, the standoff in Gaza appeared to be easing. In Lebanon, Hezbollah issued a statement praising residents trying to return and calling on foreign powers to force Israel to withdraw. But Hezbollah did not continue its fire.
Analysts say Hezbollah is unlikely to risk further losses while its leadership is decimated and its benefactor, Iran, weakened. Also, the group’s main weapons supply route through Syria was blocked in December when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Hezbollah, was ousted by the rebels.
Hezbollah’s commanders “still have some missiles, they have some weapons, they can do something,” said Hanin Ghaddar, a Lebanon analyst at the Washington Institute for Policy Studies.
“But it’s suicidal if they do that, because they know that any kind of attack by Hezbollah on Israel means that Israel will take the opportunity to come back full blast and wipe out what’s left of them,” added Ms. Ghaddar.
Hezbollah is also likely wary of losing support among its Shiite Muslim base, particularly in next year’s parliamentary elections, Ms. Ghaddar said. Lebanon’s Shiite community paid the heaviest price for Hezbollah’s decision to go to war with Israel in October 2023 in solidarity with its ally Hamas. Shiite villages and towns in southern Lebanon bore the brunt of Israel’s subsequent air campaign and ground invasion.
“If the Shiites don’t vote for them, that’s the end of Hezbollah,” Ms. Ghaddar, the author of a book about Hezbollah’s relationship with its base. “They can’t really do anything unless they know 100 percent that the Shia community is going to support them.”
Because Hezbollah is less likely to continue fighting, the Gaza rest is seen as the weaker of the two wings.
But the biggest stress test is not expected until early March, when Hamas and Israel must decide whether to extend the arrangement beyond an initial 42-day truce.
For now, Israel has signaled it wants to maintain the ceasefire to keep the hostage releases flowing. But an extension would require the two sides to agree to a permanent end to the war – a bridge that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears unwilling to cross. The coalition government of Mr. Netanyahu relies on far-right lawmakers who seek permanent Israeli control of Gaza, and his administration could collapse if the war ends with Hamas still in charge.
The terms of the agreement allow for some flexibility. The truce may continue beyond the 42-day mark as both sides remain in negotiations over whether to make the arrangement permanent.
But Israeli officials say they will not remain locked in endless fruitless negotiations, especially if Hamas stops releasing hostages. And Hamas is unlikely to continue releasing the hostages, its main bargaining chip, without an Israeli promise to end hostilities permanently.
“Hamas wants a ceasefire but not at any cost,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a Palestinian political scientist from Gaza. “They want a ceasefire that ends the war.”
Much could depend on President Trump’s willingness to cover Mr. Netanyahu towards a more permanent truce. The private messages of Mr. Trump in the Israeli prime minister was crucial to forging the initial phase, but it remains to be seen whether the American president will maintain this position beyond a few weeks.
“If Netanyahu succeeds in convincing Trump of the need to renew the war, there will likely be a renewal of the war,” said Mr. Abusada. “If Trump keeps his promise that he doesn’t want wars and wants more peace — whether it’s in Gaza, Ukraine or around the world — that’s a different thing.”
