The months-long fight by lawmakers to ban social media app TikTok in the United States came to a head on Friday when the Supreme Court heard arguments to decide the app’s fate for its 170 million American users.
While justices across the ideological spectrum asked tough questions of both sides, the overall tone and thrust appeared to indicate greater skepticism toward arguments by TikTok’s lawyers and its users that the First Amendment barred Congress from enacting the law.
If TikTok, owned by Chinese company ByteDance, is indeed blocked on January 19, here’s what users can expect to happen:
Will TikTok still be available for download on app stores?
No. The law passed by Congress last year would make it illegal for app stores from companies like Apple and Google to distribute or issue updates to TikTok at the risk of hefty civil penalties: $5,000 per US user, which could run into the hundreds of billions dollars.
If TikTok is banned, it will likely disappear from the app stores overnight. (Apple and Google have not commented on their plans to remove the app.)
Apple has long complied with foreign governments that have ordered the removal of apps in their countries. Last April, for example, Apple pulled communication apps such as WhatsApp, Signal, Threads and Telegram from its app store in China at the request of the Chinese government.
Will the TikTok app still be on my phone if I already downloaded it?
Yes. The law does not make it illegal to have the TikTok app on your phone.
“The letter of the law is about future downloads and updates,” said Dean Ball, a researcher at the Mercatus Center, a George Mason University think tank. “This is not about removing the app from people’s phones.”
But without ByteDance’s ability to issue updates to TikTok through app stores, the app will likely degrade over time. But advertisers expect some use in the United States after the ban, and as of last month, new contracts to advertise on the app were still being signed, said Craig Atkinson, chief executive of Code3, a digital marketing firm.
TikTok can also intervene before the app is downgraded and block its users in the United States from accessing videos on the platform after January 19.
In India, which banned TikTok in 2020, users of the app are met with a screen that says “Service Unavailable” and bans users from its platform.
TikTok has not said whether it will restrict access to the app if it is banned and did not respond to a request for comment.
Would TikTok still be accessible from a web browser?
No. Along with banning app store companies from hosting the app, the law also applies to web hosting companies.
However, it’s possible that users can still access TikTok if they use a virtual private network, or VPN, which encrypts a user’s location.
The ban “could even be a significant business boost for VPN providers,” said Mr. Atkinson.
Could President-elect Donald J. Trump to step in and save the app?
Some experts believe it is possible that Apple and Google will decide not to comply with the law, betting that President-elect Donald J. Trump, who has supported TikTok, will instruct his attorney general not to enforce it.
“But unless there’s new information being added to the equation, I’d be very surprised if Apple and Google did that,” Mr. Bal.
Mr. Trump could also change his mind, or even use the threat of enforcement as leverage against the two companies, said JB Ferguson, managing director of technology-focused Capstone.
“I don’t know that you’re adequately defending shareholder value if you don’t take the law seriously, even if you believe in Trump,” Mr. Ferguson for Apple and Google.
