When bird flu struck the dairy cattle for the first time a year ago, it seemed likely that it could affect some individual flocks and disappear as quickly as it appeared.
On the contrary, the virus has contaminated more than 900 flocks and dozens of people, killing one and the epidemic shows no signs of retreat.
A human pandemic is not inevitable, even now, more than twelve experts have said in their interviews. But a number of developments in recent weeks shows that the probability is no longer remote.
The unhappy guidelines, inadequate tests and long delays in the disclosure of data – echoes of errors during the Covid -19 pandemic – have wasting opportunities to limit the epidemic, experts said.
In an example of a flagship of disorder, some herds of milk production in Idaho infected with bird flu in the spring showed mild symptoms for the second time in late autumn, the New York Times learned.
In mid -January, the Ministry of Agriculture said that no new infections had been identified in Eidaho flocks since October. However, government officials publicly discussed milder cases in November.
The fact that a second period of infections would cause milder symptoms in the cattle is not surprising, experts said, and could be welcomed for farmers.
But the replying suggests that the virus, called H5N1, could be released on farms indefinitely, finding opportunities to evolve into a more dangerous form – a “high -risk” scenario, said Louise Moncla, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Penindai. .
“You could easily end up with endemic H5 in herds of dairy -domesticated symptoms, hiding rapid or easy detection,” said Dr. Moncla.
It is impossible to predict whether the virus will develop the ability to spread among people, let alone when, she and other scientists said. But their concern is that if bird flu finds the right combination of genetic mutations, the outburst could quickly escalate.
“I still don’t worry about my suitcases and my heads on the hills, but there have been more signals in the last four to six weeks that this virus has the ability to spark a pandemic, said Richard Webby, an influenza expert at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital.
Federal officials have also discreetly changed their tone in the debate on the outburst, now stressing how quickly the situation can change.
For the general public, the H5N1 is “low -risk, compared to the other dangers they face today,” said Dr. Nirav Shah, Deputy Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But “100 percent, that could change,” he said. “This is a dangerous virus.”
Health experts point out that there are precautions that Americans can take. Do not touch sick or dead birds or other animals. Do exams if you have flu symptoms. Do not consume raw milk or meat and do not feed them on your pets.
If a larger epidemic broke out, the federal stock has a few million doses of a vaccine against bird flu. But the vaccine may need information to match a sophisticated form of the virus. In both cases, officials should try to produce enough for the population in general.
CDC is a treatment with antiviral tamiflu, but studies have shown that the drug does too little to facilitate the disease.
Underlining the concerns of many experts is that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who led by the Federal Health and Human Services Department, if confirmed, was a staunch critic of Covid vaccines and said that the influenza influenza vaccines “look dangerous”.
Even if the second Trump government embraces the development of vaccines, as the first did when Covid fell, it is not clear how many Americans would lift the sleeves for shots.
Influenza usually affects children and older adults and the pandemic flu has sometimes hit young adults. But the mistrust caused during Covid-19 can make Americans avoid precautions, at least initially.
A threat that evolves
Unlike Coronovirus, who caused the devastation with its sudden arrival, influenza viruses usually start in a particular animal species or in certain geographical areas.
When a different version of the H5N1 appeared in East Asia almost three decades ago, it mainly became ill. In the years that followed, at least 940 people infected, almost all of whom had close, constant contact with infected birds. About half of these people died.
But since January 2022, when the virus was found in wild aquatic birds in the United States, it has affected more than 136 million commercial, courtyards and wild birds, contributing to ejecting egg prices.
It has also hit dozens of species of mammals, including cats, wild and domesticated, raccoons, bears and marine lions.
For at least one year, the H5N1 infects dairy cattle, which was not known to have been sensitive to this type of flu. In some cows, it had constant results, reducing milk production and increasing the chances of spontaneous abortions.
And in 2024, the virus contaminated 67 Americans, compared to just one in previous years, in 2022. The sources of these infections are not all known. A person may have transmitted the virus to someone in their household.
Many of these developments are classic steps towards a pandemic, said Dr. James Loller, director at the University of Nebraska’s World Health Security Center. But he noted, “where they had to really trigger accelerated and enhanced actions at federal, state and local level, we just raised our shoulders when every milestone passed.”
The infections of dairy herds, which first appeared in Texas, appeared to be reduced last summer. But in late August, California announced the first case. State figures soon increased abruptly, pushing Governor Gavin Newsom to declare a state of emergency for public health in December.
“This was like a flag for me, like ‘Okay, that’s not gone,” said Dr. Manisha Juthani, Commissioner of the Public Health Department of Connecticut.
“In the last two months, I have felt that the pace has grown,” he said.
Several other recent events have increased the alarm level between experts. In early December, scientists said that in a laboratory environment, only one mutation helped the virus infect human cells more effectively.
And at the end of last year, two people, a 13 -year -old girl from Canada and a Louisiana resident over 65, became seriously ill by the bird flu. Previously, most people who had been infected by H5N1 in the current outburst had not had serious symptoms.
The patient from Louisiana, who had health problems and took care of ill and dying birds, died in early January.
The girl was in support of life due to an instrument deficiency, but eventually recovered. Scientists do not yet know how it has been infected. Her only risk factor was obesity.
Both patients had been infected with a new version of the virus that is different from the cattle of dairy production and is now widespread in birds. In both people, the virus acquired mutations during infection that can allow it to better infect humans.
“Clearly now we receive new viruses formed in the tank of wild birds,” said Dr. Moncla. “It is difficult to manage all the different threats.”
Some experts find it particularly alarming that the virus seems to be in food sources such as raw milk and raw pet foods. Domestic cats have died in many states, causing at least one brand of food for pets and new federal guidelines for pet quality for pets.
“Raw pet food for me is, I think, quite alarming,” said Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo, director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases.
Pasteurization kills the live virus, as well as cooking the meat at high temperatures. However, neither of the two processes are perfect, Dr. Marrazzo noted: “There is no way to control production and sterilization in a way that ensures 100 percent that food supply is safe.”
Incorrect reply
The year since the start of the epidemic, federal officials have announced other measures to prevent or prepare a pandemic. But everyone has deep defects, the experts said.
The Ministry of Agriculture was slow to launch H5N1 vaccine tests for cows, leaving stakeholders in a deadlock. Dr. Marrazzo said the department was released genetic information from virus samples, but did not say where or when they were collected – details that would help scientists to follow the evolution of the virus.
It is also not clear how many flocks have been re -contaminated or fighting with months infections. In Aidaho, some flocks infected in the spring seemed to recover but had milder symptoms again in November.
“From the facts we have to date, we do not see signs of new infections or repetitions in flocks that had been affected in the past, but rather a lack of clearance of the initial infection,” a USDA spokesman said in response to email.
But external experts said the orbit of symptoms indicates a second round of illness.
The USDA program for the bulk test began in December – almost a year after the epidemic started – and still does not include Aidaho. Participation of private companies can help the program move faster.
Ginkgo Bioworks, a company that has worked with federal organizations during Covid Pandemic, is already evaluating about half of the country’s milk supply for bacteria, antibiotics and other substances.
The addition of H5N1 to the list would be simple, so “why not just add tests to this infrastructure we already have?” said Matt McKnight, director of the company’s bio -security department.
Earlier this month, the Biden government announced new funding of $ 306 million, about one -third of them for surveillance, testing and information to farmers.
However, farmers in some places such as Texas Panhandle do not yet know what bird flu is, how it is spreading and why they should be interested, said Bethany Alcauter, Director of Research and Public Health Programs at the National Center for Farmers’ Health Center. .
As a result, he said, many workers still do not use protective equipment, including dairy products where the virus is believed to be spreading.
Human tests were voluntary and infections are lost. Few farmers have chosen to undergo examinations, in fear of immigration employees or their own employers.
“If you don’t look for it, you won’t find it right?” Said Dr. Deborah Birx, who served as a coordinator of the White House Coronovation under President Trump.
“This is not a lockdown or restriction of activity. It is about protecting the individual American, reinforcing the information. “
