Iran has made a concerted effort to rein in militias in Iraq and Syria after the United States responded with a series of airstrikes for the killing of three US military reservists this month.
Initially, there were regional concerns that the unprecedented violence would lead to an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. But since the Feb. 2 U.S. strikes, U.S. officials say, there have been no attacks by Iranian-backed militias on U.S. bases in Iraq and only two small ones in Syria.
Before then, the US military had recorded at least 170 attacks against US troops in four months, Pentagon officials said.
The relative quiet reflects decisions on both sides and suggests that Iran does have some level of control over the militias.
The Biden administration has made clear that Tehran will be held responsible for miscalculations and operations by proxy forces, but has avoided any direct attack on Iran. The U.S. response “may have some effect,” Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., retired head of the Pentagon’s Central Command, said in an interview.
“The question is whether the militias attack or not,” he added, “and at least for now they don’t.”
The calm also marks a sharp reversal from Iran. Tehran had for months directed its regional proxies in Iraq and Syria to attack US bases in the Middle East as part of a wider battle against Israel, which is fighting Hamas in Gaza.
U.S. and Iranian officials interviewed for this article spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.
As the proxy attacks intensified, culminating in the deaths of three American soldiers, Iranian leaders worried that the level of autonomy granted to the militias was beginning to pay off and could lead them to war, according to Iranian and American officials.
“They are afraid of direct confrontation with the US, they know that if Americans are killed again it would mean war,” said Sina Azodi, a lecturer at George Washington University and an expert on Iran’s national security. “They had to put the brakes on the militia and convince them that a war with the US could hurt Tehran first and then by extension the entire axis.”
Iran funds, equips and provides technical support and training to a network of militants in the region it calls the Axis of Resistance.
The groups include Hezbollah in Lebanon. the Houthis in Yemen; militias in Iraq such as Kataib Hezbollah and Hashd al-Shaabi; Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza. and militias in Syria. While Iran directs an overall strategy on the axis, the level of day-to-day control and coordination runs a spectrum. Tehran has the most influence over Hezbollah, with the Syrian and Iraqi militias falling in the middle and the Houthis being the most autonomous.
Iran’s push to rein in forces began shortly after the killing of three US soldiers in a drone strike in Jordan on January 28, as Washington vowed a strong response.
General Qassem Soleimani, the high-level Iranian general killed by a US drone strike in 2020, kept Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria on a tight leash. This was mainly because, for most of his tenure, war raged in both countries and he ordered the militia to fight the Americans and then the Islamic State terrorist group. But when Maj. General Esmail Ghaani succeeded him, most of these conflicts had been settled, and General Ghaani adopted a hands-off leadership style, setting only broad guidelines, analysts said.
General Ghaani, commander-in-chief of the Quds Force, the branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps tasked with overseeing the proxies, has nonetheless been involved in coordinating strategy against Israel and the United States for the various militias during the current war. in Gaza.
He led a series of emergency meetings in late January in Tehran and Baghdad with generals, senior Revolutionary Guard commanders and senior militia commanders to re-plan and avert war with the United States, according to two Iranians connected to the Guards. of them a military general. Reuters first reported the general’s visit to Baghdad.
In Baghdad, General Ghaani held a long meeting with representatives of all the Shiite militant groups that operate under the umbrella of a collective they call the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. The collective has carried out and subsequently claimed responsibility for dozens of attacks on US bases, and Washington has blamed the group for the drone attack that killed the Americans.
General Ghaani told them that Iran and the various militia groups had made considerable gains by pressuring the United States because President Biden had faced intense criticism for his staunch support for Israel and rifts had emerged between him and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. of the two Iranians. associated with the Guards said. A war between Tehran and Washington could also jeopardize the long-term goal of rooting the United States out of the region, he told the group, the two Iranians said.
Two of Iraq’s largest militias, Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba, at first strongly resisted General Ghaani’s demand that they stop attacks on Americans, arguing that fighting American troops was an integral part of their ideology and identity them, said the two Iranians.
Influential Iraqi politicians, including senior clerics known as marjaiah, who are based in Najaf, a Shiite holy city, have joined efforts to persuade the militias to stop the attacks. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani also played a role, telling Iraqi militia commanders and General Ghani that continued attacks on US forces had complicated negotiations between Baghdad and Washington over the withdrawal of US troops from his country, according to with Iran. and Iraqi officials.
The commanders agreed. Kataib Hezbollah announced that it was stopping attacks on US bases and that its decisions were independent of Iran.
The result of General Ghaani’s deliberations was a new strategy calling on Iraqi militias to cease all attacks on US bases in Iraq, including the Kurdistan Region in the north, and the US Embassy in Baghdad. In Syria, militia groups have been told to scale back attacks on US bases to avoid casualties, according to Iranian officials and US intelligence estimates. But groups operating against Israel in Lebanon and Yemen will continue apace, Iranians familiar with the strategy said.
Once the attacks against the Americans subsided, the United States barred from hitting at least one senior militia leader after February 2 to avoid disrupting the ceasefire and provoking more hostilities, according to a Defense Department official.
Another US official said the Pentagon was prepared to strike more militia targets if necessary, but had decided that carrying out more raids now would be counterproductive.
The Guards’ military general said Iran believed a direct war with the United States would work in Israel’s favor at a time when world opinion had turned against it because of the high number of civilian deaths and suffering in Gaza. After more than a decade, the general said, Iran believes it is enjoying a wave of popularity among Arabs, who are angry that their countries’ leaders are not doing enough to support the Palestinians.
Sabrina Singh, a Pentagon spokeswoman, said last week: “Our assessment is that Iran is not seeking a broader regional conflict.”
“But they are supporting these militia groups that are attacking our forces,” he added.
Iran’s general policy is to maintain multiple fronts against Israel simmering through proxies while the war in Gaza rages, even as Tehran-linked militias refrain from striking US bases.
Hezbollah in Lebanon exchanges fire almost daily with the Israeli military, and the Houthis in Yemen attack ships in the Red Sea and try to prevent commercial ships from reaching Israeli ports.
Hezbollah and Houthi attacks will intensify if Israel launches an attack on Rafah, the city in southern Gaza where more than a million civilians are trapped, according to the two Guardsmen familiar with Iran’s new strategy. Osama Hamdan, a senior Hamas leader, told a news conference in Iran last week that “any attack on Rafah will be met with a harsh response from the resistance.”
US officials acknowledged that they faced a particular challenge with the Houthis. The US strategy for the Houthis is to limit the group’s formidable arsenal, prevent arms transfers from Iran and push for a cease-fire in Gaza.
While a key part of the Washington-Tehran standoff is on hold, other destabilizing dynamics in the region remain active and unpredictable. Iran and Israel are engaged in an ongoing shadow war, including a recent sneak attack by Israel on two major gas pipelines in Iran and strikes on Iranian-linked residences in Damascus, the Syrian capital. Iran has not yet openly retaliated against Israel following these attacks.
Colin P. Clarke, director of policy and research at the Soufan Group, an intelligence and security consultancy, said: “Iran has this uncanny ability to walk the line and not cross it.”
But, he added, “It doesn’t feel stable, and it doesn’t feel like we’re over the hump, and things could really change at any moment.”
