The Gaza ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas had yet to be ratified by the Israeli government on Thursday, but the battle over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future has already begun.
Hours after the announcement of the agreement, Mr. Netanyahu was facing an internal revolt from far-right partners in his ruling coalition on whose support he depends to stay in power.
Itamar Ben-Gvir, the minister of national security, announced on Thursday night that his ultra-nationalist Jewish Power party would quit his coalition. Netanyahu if the cabinet approves the ceasefire agreement.
The move threatened to destabilize the government at a critical time, even though it would not, by itself, prevent the Gaza deal from moving forward. The majority of the cabinet is in favor of the ceasefire agreement and it is expected to be approved even without the votes of Jewish Power and another far-right party in the coalition, Religious Zionism. Led by Israel’s finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, Religious Zionism also strongly opposes the deal.
Jewish Power holds six seats in the 120-seat parliament and if the party quits, as it has promised, it would reduce the government’s parliamentary majority to a slim 62 out of 68. Mr. Ben-Gvir said his party would offer to rejoin the government if it resumed the war against Hamas.
Mr. Smotrich, whose party holds seven seats, has threatened to quit the government at a later stage if Mr. Netanyahu moved from the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, which calls for a six-week truce, to a permanent one.
Mr. Netanyahu may face a fateful choice in the politically precarious weeks ahead: retain his parliamentary majority by resuming the fight against Hamas in Gaza, or risk the collapse of the coalition halfway through his four-year term and gamble on early elections.
After more than 15 months of devastating war and with President-elect Donald J. Trump taking office on Monday, some analysts say ending the conflict in Gaza is a better option for the Israeli leader.
“Elections are about a story,” said Moshe Klughaft, an Israeli strategic consultant and director of international political campaigns who has advised Mr. Netanyahu in the past, adding that, in the event of an election, the next story of Mr. Netanyahu will be one of “War and Peace”.
The first phase of the deal is expected to begin on Sunday and last for six weeks, during which Hamas is supposed to release 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and Israeli troops are supposed to be redeployed east, away from populated areas of Gaza. . .
If carried out, the second phase, over another six weeks, would see the remaining hostages returned to their homes – some alive, some dead – and a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
The families of the hostages have pleaded with Mr. Netanyahu to put politics aside and complete the ceasefire agreement. Mr. Trump has made it clear that he wants the war, which was sparked by the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, to end.
The first Trump administration mediated the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and three Arab countries. Israelis are now looking forward to the prospect of a larger negotiation leading to formal ties with Saudi Arabia in Mr. Trump, an arrangement that would strengthen the regional axis against Israel’s primary enemy, Iran.
Mr. Klughaft, the general, said he believed there was “more chance Mr. Netanyahu to choose Saudi Arabia and the elections over Smotrich and the continuation of the war.”
Mr. Ben-Gvir and Mr. Smotrich want the war in Gaza to continue until Hamas is eliminated. Their hope is for the Israeli military to rule in the Palestinian enclave to eventually pave the way for Jewish settlements there.
Mr. Ben-Gvir has described the deal as an Israeli “handover” to Hamas and called in a video statement on Mr. Smotrich to help him do the numbers to prevent her by resigning from the government together. Neither has the power to bring down the government on their own.
Mr. Ben-Gvir had already proven to be an unreliable and troublesome coalition partner. Demanding pay rises for police, he refused to support the government in passing crucial legislation last month, forcing Mr. Netanyahu to leave his hospital bed while recovering from prostate surgery and vote in the assembly to make sure the law is passed.
Mr. Netanyahu had frequent and long meetings with Mr. Smotrich in recent days to convince him to stay in the coalition. After three hours of talks between Mr. Smotrich and his party MPs on Thursday, the party issued an ultimatum demanding a promise from Mr. Netanyahu that he would resume the war against Hamas immediately after the first six-week ceasefire as a condition for Mr. Smotrich in the government.
Mr. Netanyahu, meanwhile, held off on convening a cabinet vote to ratify the deal, citing last-minute disagreements with Hamas over the details.
Mr. Netanyahu is fighting corruption charges in a lengthy trial and risks facing a public reckoning once the war ends for military and political failures ahead of a Hamas offensive in 2023. Given the circumstances, some analysts believe he will choose to scrap the second phase of agreement, if Hamas does not do so first, to keep its coalition intact.
“Netanyahu wants to stay in power,” said Gail Talsir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “It doesn’t make sense for him to go to an election not to win. He wants two more years to lead the government.”
Mr. Netanyahu could still reach an understanding with Mr. Smotrich. Even if the Minister of Finance joins Mr. Ben-Gvir on leaving the coalition, Mr. Netanyahu could, at least for a while, remain at the head of a minority government. Opposition party leaders say they will provide Mr. Netanyahu a political safety net for the sake of peace.
In any case, the government is likely to survive the end of the first phase of the deal, said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a nonpartisan research group in Jerusalem.
However, Mr. Netanyahu may have to decide between his parliamentary majority and his relationship with the incoming administration in Washington, with Mr. Trump and Saudi Arabia may offer him the opportunity to fulfill his legacy.
“I think his mind is already on the next big move,” said Mr. Plesner for Mr. Netanyahu, adding: “If he has to choose between a close relationship with the Trump administration and Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, he will choose Trump.”
American and Israeli officials said the deal reached this week closely resembles the proposal President Biden outlined last May.
The critics of the government of Mr. Netanyahu, including many of the families of the 98 hostages still being held by Hamas in Gaza, have long accused the prime minister of sabotaging previous efforts to reach a deal to preserve his coalition.
Mr. Ben-Gvir seemingly confirmed those suspicions in his video statement this week, claiming that he and Mr. Smotrich had used their political leverage to thwart a similar deal “on occasion” over the past year.
Mr. Netanyahu and his loyalists have blamed Hamas for past failures to reach an agreement.
Many Israelis and hostage families say they support a deal that would bring all the hostages home. They include Rachel Goldberg-Polin and Jon Polin, the parents of Hersh Goldberg-Polin, a dual American-Israeli national whose name appeared on the initial list of hostages to be released in the first phase of the deal last year, but who was killed . along with five other hostages last August by their captors in a tunnel in Gaza.
“It is imperative to complete this process and return all 98 hostages to their families,” they wrote in a statement welcoming the deal on Thursday. “It is also time for the innocent citizens of Gaza to be relieved of their suffering.”
