The political party on the brink of leadership in Austria would drag an already conservative country into a growing group of nations veering to the far right of European politics. He has flirted with Nazi slogans, stuck with Russia and warned Holocaust survivor groups. He campaigned on promises to deport immigrants and ban political forms of Islam.
The Freedom Party, known as the FPÖ, and its leader, Herbert Kickl, had a chance to form a governing coalition this week after efforts to oust them from power collapsed. If they succeed in forming a government, it would be a shock to the Austrian political system and a further jolt to Western Europe, where similar far-right parties are on the rise in France, Germany and elsewhere.
But it wouldn’t be surprising.
The rise of the Freedom Party follows years of growing acceptance of the far right in Austrian politics. Its growth has been helped by scandals and an ideological shift in the most dominant conservative party that has led Austria’s governments for 15 of the past 25 years.
Unlike in neighboring Germany, where all other parties refused to include the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany in federal governing coalitions, other parties in Austria allowed the Freedom Party to share power for years as a junior partner.
The Freedom Party has broadened its appeal in recent elections with an anti-establishment message harshly critical of immigrants, Covid restrictions, the European Union and supporting Ukraine in its defense against Russian invasion. The party has won the support of workers, university graduates and, above all, women. In the European Parliament elections this summer, it was the most popular party among Austrian voters under the age of 35.
“The idea that the FPÖ is somehow politically taboo, that train has long since left the station,” said Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik, a political scientist at the University of Vienna.
The Freedom Party was founded by former members of the SS, the Nazi paramilitary force, in the 1950s. It was largely shunned in its early years, but then slowly became part of the political establishment.
The party first entered a national government with progressive Social Democrats in 1983 and has served in four governing coalitions since then, the most recent just six years ago. It is also active at state level and participates in coalitions in the majority of Austria’s nine states.
Until the late 1980s, the Freedom Party was a small, elitist entity largely associated with some nationalist university fraternities. A new leader, Jörg Haider, attracted more voters by adopting campaign rhetoric harshly critical of foreigners.
This focus has become the driving force of the modern party, sharpened and intensified by Mr. Kickl, who wrote speeches for Mr. Haider early in his career. Mr. Kickl led the party to increasingly provocative slogans, including the xenophobic “Viennese blood – too many foreigners do no one any good”.
In 2017, the Freedom Party joined a governing coalition with the conservative People’s Party. Karin Kneissl, then the Freedom Party’s choice for foreign minister, was widely criticized for dancing at her 2018 wedding to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. He has since moved to Russia.
The administration and coalition quickly fell apart in a scandal involving a hidden camera, a fake Russian heiress and a former leader of the Freedom Party in 2019.
During the administration, Mr. Kickl served as the country’s interior minister, putting him in charge of immigration control, an issue that was integral to the party’s platform.
He made headlines at the time for proposing to “concentrate” refugees in central facilities. Although Mr. Kickl later claimed that he was not trying to provoke, many believe that his use of a Nazi-era phrase referring to concentration camps was intentional.
It was also not isolated. Mr. Kickl’s party has since repeatedly invoked the term “Volkskanzler” — “people’s chancellor” — used by Hitler.
While others in the party wanted to tone down anti-immigrant rhetoric, Mr. Kickl has capitalized on raw, emotional appeals to native Austrian workers. He took advantage of resentment over the influx of refugees into Austria from the Middle East and, later, Ukraine. At the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, he rallied opposition to vaccine mandates, lockdowns and masks.
In the election campaign last fall, Mr. Kickl has vowed to build “Fortress Austria” — resorting to tough border control measures, the forced deportation of migrants and the suspension of asylum rights for refugees, which would require breaking with a European Union deal on migration. He called for a reversal of measures aimed at combating climate change and a renewed focus on fossil fuels.
He has also pushed for political changes that some analysts say will push Austria toward a more authoritarian model of governance, similar to Viktor Orban’s in Hungary. These changes include new referendum procedures that will allow a relatively small slice of the electorate to force a national vote to topple the government or sack individual ministers.
The platform of Mr. Kickl appealed to many voters, with the party winning the most seats in September’s national assembly elections. “There is more demand for some toughness than politics,” said Christoph Hofinger, an Austrian election researcher.
It caused some alarm. After the election, Christoph Heubner, executive vice-president of the International Auschwitz Committee, said that for Holocaust survivors, the victory had added “a disturbing new chapter to their fears and anxieties”.
The Freedom Party benefited, in part, from the problems of the People’s Party. The group won the chancellorship in 2017 after swinging to the right on several issues. But the People’s Party was quickly mired in a series of scandals, including one involving rigged polls published in the press. It has also faced voter discontent over inflation and Covid restrictions, along with its most recent coalition partner, the Green Party.
After the election defeat, Karl Nehammer, the current chancellor of the People’s Party, declared that he would not form a coalition with Mr. Cycle Many saw the promise, made during the campaign, as a play to keep the chancellor rather than an ideological stance, as the two parties have a long history of working together in state and federal governments.
“There has never been any fundamental criticism of the FPÖ’s understanding of democracy or the rule of law” from conservatives, Mr. Ennser-Jedenastik.
Despite many months of efforts, the People’s Party was unable to form a coalition without the extreme right. And Mr. Nehammer announced his resignation as chancellor this week, paving the way for the Freedom Party to emerge at the top in a coalition.
In a government coalition, Mr. Kickl won’t be able to deliver on all of its promises. The next Austrian government will need to close a budget deficit, which could hamper its economic agenda, including tax cuts and increases in social spending.
But the party’s popularity will give it a strong voice as it pushes for policy changes aimed at foreigners and refugees, analysts said. Likely among them: cutting social services to non-German speakers or reducing financial aid for refugees.
In the autumn elections, 29 percent of Austrians voted for the Freedom Party. Current polls now put voter support at more than 35 percent.
“If Kickl ever feels that the other side is not taking these talks seriously, he just walks off the table and forces an early election,” Mr. Hofinger.
